2016 United States Senate Election in Indiana
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2016 United States Senate Election in Indiana

2016 United States Senate election in Indiana

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  Todd Young crop.jpg Evan Bayh official portrait v2.jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Todd Young Evan Bayh Lucy Brenton
Party Republican Democratic Libertarian
Popular vote 1,423,991 1,158,974 149,481
Percentage 52.1% 42.4% 5.5%

Indiana Senate Election Results by County, 2016.svg
County results

Young:      40-50%      50-60%      60-70%      70-80%

Bayh:      40-50%      50-60%      60-70%

U.S. senator before election

Dan Coats
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Todd Young
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Indiana was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Indiana, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Coats, who has served in the Senate since 2011, and previously served from 1989 to 1999, had stated that he planned to run for re-election,[1][2] but in March 2014 his chief of staff said that Coats "has decided not to decide whether to run again until after the [2014] midterm elections".[3] On March 24, 2015, Coats announced that he would not run for re-election, citing that he would be of advanced age (just under 80 years old) by the end of the 2017-2023 term, should he complete it.[4] The primaries were held May 3, and were won by former U.S. Representative Baron Hill and incumbent U.S. Representative Todd Young. However, on July 11, 2016, Hill withdrew, and former U.S. Senator Evan Bayh entered the race to regain the seat he held from 1999 to 2011, and that his father, Birch Bayh, held from 1963 to 1981. The Indiana Democratic Party chose Bayh as Hill's replacement on July 22. Bayh was initially seen as the frontrunner, but faced heavy criticism over lobbying work that he had done after leaving office as well as his lack of forthrightedness about maintaining residency in the state. Ultimately, Young won by a comfortable margin, defeating Bayh in the general election by 10 points.[5]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Todd
Young
Marlin
Stutzman
Undecided
NBC/WSJ/Marist April 26-28, 2016 645 ± 3.9% 56% 24% 20%
IPFW/Downs Center April 13-27, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 42% 34% 24%
WTHR/Howey April 18-21, 2016 507 ± 4.0% 43% 31% 26%

Results

Results by county:
  Young--80-90%
  Young--70-80%
  Young--60-70%
  Young--50-60%
  Stutzman--50-60%
  Stutzman--60-70%
  Stutzman--70-80%
Republican primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Todd Young 661,136 67.0%
Republican Marlin Stutzman 324,429 33.0%
Total votes 985,565 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Baron Hill, former U.S. Representative (withdrew after winning primary)

Withdrawn

  • John Dickerson, former nonprofit organization director[29][30]

Declined

Endorsements

Baron Hill
Individuals
Organizations

Results

Democratic primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Baron Hill 516,183 100.00%
Total votes 516,183 100.00%

Democratic State Central Committee selection

On July 11, 2016, CNN's Tom LoBianco announced that Bayh would enter the race to regain his old Senate seat and Hill would drop out and withdraw his name from the November ballot.[41] Hill soon after released a statement formally dropping out of the race saying he did not "...want to stand in the way of Democrats winning Indiana and the U.S. Senate. That would not be fair to my party or my state. And, the stakes are far too high in this election not to put my country above my own political ambitions,"[42] without explicitly endorsing Bayh.[42] The first candidate to declare was Bob Kern, a frequent candidate for Congress in various districts around the state.[43] Bayh officially declared for the race July 13.[44] The Indiana Democratic Party's State Central Committee chose Bayh as Hill's replacement, for the general election.[42]

Candidates

General election

Candidates

Debates

Dates Location Young Bayh Brenton Link
October 18, 2016 Indianapolis, Indiana Participant Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Endorsements

Evan Bayh
U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials
Mayors
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[62] Tossup November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[63] Lean R November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[64] Tossup October 21, 2016
Daily Kos[65] Tossup November 3, 2016
Real Clear Politics[66] Tossup November 3, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Todd
Young (R)
Evan
Bayh (D)
Lucy
Brenton (L)
Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1-7, 2016 1,700 ± 4.6% 53% 42% -- 5%
SurveyMonkey Oct 31-Nov 6, 2016 1,383 ± 4.6% 52% 43% -- 5%
WTHR/Howey November 1-3, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 46% 41% 6% 7%
SurveyMonkey Oct 28-Nov 3, 2016 923 ± 4.6% 52% 43% -- 5%
SurveyMonkey Oct 27-Nov 2, 2016 790 ± 4.6% 51% 44% -- 5%
Gravis Marketing Oct 30-Nov 1, 2016 399 ± 4.9% 37% 40% 7% 16%
SurveyMonkey Oct 26-Nov 1, 2016 638 ± 4.6% 51% 46% -- 3%
SurveyMonkey October 25-31, 2016 674 ± 4.6% 50% 46% -- 4%
Monmouth University October 27-30, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 45% 45% 4% 5%
Gravis Marketing October 22-24, 2016 596 ± 2.3% 37% 39% 7% 17%
WISH/Ball State Hoosier Survey October 10-16, 2016 544 ± 3.9% 43% 49% -- 6%
Monmouth University October 11-13, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 42% 48% 6% 4%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young) October 9-11, 2016 609 ± 4.0% 40% 39% 8% 13%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid October 7-10, 2016 1,123 ± 3.0% 43% 46% -- 11%
WTHR/Howey October 3-5, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 41% 42% 8% 9%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young) October 3, 2016[67] - - 38% 42% 7% 13%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young) September 21, 2016[67] - - 39% 44% 9% 8%
WTHR/Howey September 6-8, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 40% 44% 5% 11%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young) September 1, 2016[67] - - 35% 44% 6% 15%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Bayh) August 15-18, 2016 801 ± 3.5% 39% 55% -- 6%
Monmouth University August 13-16, 2016 403 ± 4.9% 41% 48% 4% 7%
Global Strategy Group (D-SMP) August 10-14, 2016 801 ± 3.5% 36% 54% -- 10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Young) August 8, 2016[67] - - 35% 48% 7% 10%
Expedition Strategies (R-Gregg) August 1-3, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 32% 58% -- 9%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-DSCC) July 12-14, 2016 602 ± 4.1% 33% 54% -- 13%

Results

United States Senate election in Indiana, 2016 [68]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Todd Young 1,423,991 52.11% -2.49%
Democratic Evan Bayh 1,158,947 42.41% +2.40%
Libertarian Lucy Brenton 149,481 5.47% +0.08%
Independent James L. Johnson, Jr. (write-in) 127 0.01% N/A
Total votes 2,732,546 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

References

  1. ^ a b Bradner, Eric (December 8, 2012). "Coats preparing for re-election in 2016 » Evansville Courier & Press". Courierpress.com. Retrieved 2013.
  2. ^ Francisco, Brian (November 2, 2011). "Coats gets head start on 2016". Journal Gazette. Retrieved 2013.
  3. ^ a b c d "Tully: Dan Coats weighing another term in Senate". IndyStar.com. March 4, 2014. Retrieved 2014.
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h Joseph, Cameron (March 24, 2015). "Coats retirement in Indiana shakes up 2016 battle for Senate". The Hill. Retrieved 2015.
  5. ^ Maureen Groppe (July 12, 2016). "Few former senators have done what Bayh might do". IndyStar.
  6. ^ a b c d e Brian Howey (January 30, 2015). "If Sen. Coates doesn't run, who does?". KokomoPerspective.com. Retrieved 2015.
  7. ^ Cahn, Emily (May 9, 2015). "Marlin Stutzman Leaving House to Run for Senate". Roll Call. Retrieved 2015.
  8. ^ Francisco, Brian (August 18, 2015). "Candidate fields growing quietly". Journal Gazette. Retrieved 2015.
  9. ^ "May 3, 2016 Primary Election Candidates" (PDF). Indiana Secretary of State Election Division. Retrieved 2016.
  10. ^ Joseph, Cameron (March 26, 2015). "Chief of staff launches Senate bid for Coats's seat". The Hill. Retrieved 2015.
  11. ^ "Eric Holcomb drops out of Indiana senate race". WRTV. February 8, 2016. Retrieved 2016.
  12. ^ Francisco, Brian (May 11, 2015). "Banks set for Congress run". The Journal Gazette. Retrieved 2015.
  13. ^ a b c Howey, Brian A.; Schoeff, Jr., Mark (March 24, 2015). "Coats decision sets off 2016 Senate mad scramble". Howey Politics. Retrieved 2015.
  14. ^ de la Bastide, Ken (April 20, 2015). "Brooks won't run for U.S. Senate". The Herald Bulletin. Retrieved 2015.
  15. ^ Sullivan, Sean (March 24, 2015). "Cross Rep. Larry Bucshon's name off the list of possible GOP candidates for the Indiana Senate race. He tells me he is not interested". Twitter. Retrieved 2015.
  16. ^ Hakim-Shabazz, Abdul (March 24, 2015). "Coats Not Running For Re-Election". Indy Politics. Archived from the original on March 26, 2015. Retrieved 2015.
  17. ^ "TBangert: Governor run for Purdue's Mitch Daniels? 'Nope'". The Indianapolis Star. April 21, 2015.
  18. ^ a b Howey, Brian (May 26, 2015). "A fascinating U.S. Senate race is setting up". News and Tribune. Retrieved 2015.
  19. ^ Carden, Dan (September 15, 2015). "UPDATE: Delph opts out of U.S. Senate race". The Times of Northwest Indiana. Retrieved 2015.
  20. ^ Raju, Manu (March 25, 2015). "Dick Lugar won't be making a comeback, declines to run for Coats' seat in #INSEN, per @kyledcheney". Twitter. Retrieved 2015.
  21. ^ Helms, Aubrey (August 4, 2015). "Young locking in fundraising advantage for U.S. Senate race". The Statehouse File. Retrieved 2015.
  22. ^ Eric Bradner; Dana Bash; MJ Lee (July 15, 2016). "Donald Trump selects Mike Pence as VP". CNN.
  23. ^ Carden, Dan (June 10, 2015). "Rokita opts out of U.S. Senate race". The Times of Northwest Indiana. Retrieved 2015.
  24. ^ Vandenack, Tim (April 15, 2015). "U.S. Rep. Walorski to seek third term in House, won't run for Senate after all". The Elkhart Truth. Archived from the original on April 15, 2015. Retrieved 2015.
  25. ^ Marturello, Mike (April 9, 2015). "Zoeller quiets talk of Senate run to replace Coats". News and Tribune. Retrieved 2015.
  26. ^ a b c Francisco, Brian (January 17, 2016). "GOP Senate hopefuls aim right". The Journal Gazette. Retrieved 2016.
  27. ^ Francisco, Brian (March 22, 2016). "FreedomWorks endorses Stutzman in Senate race". The Journal Gazette. Retrieved 2016.
  28. ^ a b "Indiana Primary Election, May 3, 2016". Indiana Secretary of State. Retrieved 2016.
  29. ^ Lewis, Olivia (August 15, 2015). "Dickerson kicks off campaign for U.S. Senate seat". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved 2015.
  30. ^ "John Dickerson Drops Out of Race For U.S. Senate". wfyi Indianapolis. January 21, 2016. Retrieved 2016.
  31. ^ Howey, Brian A.; Butler, Matthew (June 25, 2015). "Gov. Pence prepares to pick a fight" (PDF). Howey Politics Indiana. 20 (39). Retrieved 2019.
  32. ^ Cahn, Emily; Levinson, Alexis (March 24, 2015). "Coats Retirement Sparks Hoosier State Free-for-All". Roll Call. Retrieved 2015.
  33. ^ a b Livingston, Abby (June 19, 2013). "Ambitious Hoosiers Wait for Future Statewide Races Farm Team". Roll Call. Retrieved 2013.
  34. ^ Smith, Brandon (May 25, 2016). "John Gregg Announces Rep. Christina Hale As Running Mate". WFIU.
  35. ^ Bruggeman, Karyn (March 8, 2015). "Mike Pence and Indiana's Deep Freeze". National Journal. Retrieved 2015.
  36. ^ Howey, Brian A. (March 24, 2015). "Sen. Coats will not seek reelection in 2016; won't endorse". Howey Politics. Retrieved 2015.
  37. ^ Howey, Brian (September 10, 2015). "U.S. Senate race: McDermott considers" (PDF). Howey Politics. Retrieved 2015.
  38. ^ Joseph, Cameron (March 24, 2015). "GOP braces for free-for-all in Indiana". The Hill. Retrieved 2015.
  39. ^ Turner, Kris (June 4, 2015). "Glenda Ritz calls education 'catalyst for improvement' in run for governor". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved 2015.
  40. ^ Tester, Jon (March 8, 2016). "DSCC Endorses Baron Hill in Indiana Senate Race". Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Retrieved 2016.
  41. ^ a b Tom LoBianco (July 11, 2016). "First on CNN: Evan Bayh mounting Senate return". CNN.
  42. ^ a b c "Baron Hill withdraws from U.S. Senate race; Evan Bayh to enter race". WTHR. July 11, 2016.
  43. ^ a b "Bob Kern Senate filing" (PDF). Indiana Secretary of State. July 12, 2016.
  44. ^ a b Tom LoBianco (July 13, 2016). "Bayh announces Senate bid, puts Indiana seat in play". CNN. Retrieved 2016.
  45. ^ Rucker, Philip (October 23, 2016). "Clinton infuses cash into Senate, gubernatorial races, including Indiana and Missouri". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved 2016.
  46. ^ Roberts, Kelly (October 26, 2016). "Mayor Tom Henry campaigns for Evan Bayh". WANE-TV. Retrieved 2016.
  47. ^ "Daily News Bin endorses Democrat Evan Bayh in 2016 Senate race in Indiana". Daily News Bin. July 12, 2016. Archived from the original on November 4, 2016. Retrieved 2016.
  48. ^ Shella, Jim (September 8, 2016). "UAW endorses Bayh, attacks Young". WISH-TV. Retrieved 2016.
  49. ^ "Bayh best for Indiana, Senate". The Journal Gazette. October 23, 2016. Retrieved 2016.
  50. ^ "Endorsements: A tough choice for U.S. Senate but Bayh is sensible pick for Indiana". South Bend Tribune. October 30, 2016. Retrieved 2016.
  51. ^ http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2016/09/12/bush-campaign-young/90258108/
  52. ^ "Tom Cotton campaigns with Todd Young". tomcotton.com. October 27, 2016. Archived from the original on November 4, 2016. Retrieved 2016.
  53. ^ Roberts, Kelly (November 5, 2016). "Senator Ted Cruz makes final push for Todd Young". WANE-TV. Retrieved 2018.
  54. ^ Republican Party of Indiana (November 1, 2016). "I work with @ToddYoung closely- he's one of the most hardworking men in Congress. He's a servant leader.- @PRyan". Twitter. Retrieved 2016.
  55. ^ a b https://www.wfyi.org/news/articles/hubbard-kittle-back-rep-young-to-get-in-senate-race
  56. ^ Fiorina, Carly (October 27, 2016). "Why Indiana needs a conservative fighter like @ToddYoungIN in the U.S. Senate: facebook.com/CarlyFiorina/p..." Twitter. Retrieved 2016.
  57. ^ a b c "Endorsements". toddyoung.org.
  58. ^ DeFreeuw, Eric (September 21, 2016). "NRA ad takes aim at Bayh's gun control voting record". WPTA. Archived from the original on November 4, 2016. Retrieved 2016.
  59. ^ Shella, Jim (March 30, 2016). "Todd Young wins business endorsements". WISH-TV. Retrieved 2016.
  60. ^ "ACU Endorses Todd Young". American Conservative Union.
  61. ^ "Editorial: Todd Young is best choice for Senate". The Indianapolis Star. October 22, 2016. Retrieved 2016.
  62. ^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for September 30, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2016.
  63. ^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved 2016.
  64. ^ "2016 Senate Ratings (October 14, 2016)". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved 2016.
  65. ^ "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved 2016.
  66. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved 2016.
  67. ^ a b c d Date of polling memo, not field dates, which remain unreleased
  68. ^ "Indiana General Election, November 8, 2016". Indiana Secretary of State. Retrieved 2016.

External links

Official campaign websites

  This article uses material from the Wikipedia page available here. It is released under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share-Alike License 3.0.

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