2020 United States Presidential Election
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2020 United States Presidential Election

2020 United States presidential election

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →

538 members of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win
Opinion polls

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The electoral map for the 2020 election, based on populations from the 2010 Census

Incumbent President

Donald Trump
Republican



The 2020 United States presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020. It will be the 59th quadrennial presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will vote on December 14, 2020, to either elect a new president and vice president or reelect the incumbents Donald Trump and Mike Pence respectively.[2] The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses were held from February to August 2020. This nominating process is an indirect election, where voters cast ballots selecting a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who then in turn elect their parties' nominees for president and vice president.

Trump secured the Republican nomination without any serious opposition alongside incumbent vice president Pence. Former vice president Joe Biden secured the Democratic nomination over his closest rival, Senator Bernie Sanders, in a competitive primary which featured the largest field of presidential candidates for any political party in the modern era of American politics. On August 11, 2020, Biden announced that his running mate would be Senator Kamala Harris, making her the first African-American, the first Indian-American, the first Asian-American, and the third female vice presidential nominee on a major party ticket. Jo Jorgensen secured the Libertarian nomination with Spike Cohen as her running mate, and Howie Hawkins secured the Green nomination with Angela Nicole Walker as his running mate.

The winner of the 2020 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2021. Trump or Biden would be the oldest candidate to be elected president, and if sworn in, Biden would become the oldest person to serve as president at 78 years old (surpassing Ronald Reagan who was 77 years old at the end of his second term).

Background

Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old and a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party develops a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The presidential nominee typically chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention (with the exception of the Libertarian Party, which nominates its vice-presidential candidate by delegate vote regardless of the presidential nominee's preference). The general election in November is also an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[3] If no candidate receives the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, the United States House of Representatives will select the president from the three candidates who received the most electoral votes, and the United States Senate will select the vice president from the candidates who received the two highest totals. The election will occur simultaneously alongside elections for the House of Representatives, Senate, and various state and local-level elections.

On August 26, 2019, the Maine Legislature passed a bill adopting ranked-choice voting (RCV) both for presidential primaries and for the general election.[4][5] On September 6, 2019, Governor Janet Mills allowed the bill to become law without her signature, which delayed it from taking effect until after the 2020 Democratic primary in March, but put Maine on track to be the first state to use RCV for a presidential general election. The law continues the use of the congressional district method for the allocation of electors, as Maine and Nebraska have used in recent elections.[6] However, in June the Maine Republican Party filed signatures for a veto referendum to ask voters if they want the law repealed and preclude the use of RCV for the 2020 election. Matthew Dunlap, the Maine Secretary of State, rejected a number of signatures that had not been collected by a registered voter as required under the Maine Constitution, resulting in there being insufficient signatures for the veto referendum to qualify for the ballot. A challenge to Dunlap's decision in Maine Superior Court was successful for the Maine Republican Party, but the case was appealed to the Maine Supreme Judicial Court.[7][8] On September 8, the Court issued a stay of the Superior Court ruling pending appeal on the merits, causing confusion and uncertainty regarding the 2020 election.[9] Nevertheless, ballots began being printed later that day without the veto referendum and including RCV for the presidential election,[10][11] and the Court ruled in favor of the Secretary of State on September 22, allowing RCV to be used.[12] Implementation of RCV could potentially delay the projection of the winner(s) of Maine's electoral votes for days after election day,[13] and will also complicate interpretation of the national popular vote.[14]

Demographic trends

The age group of what will then be people in the 18-to-45-year-old bracket is expected to represent just under 40 percent of the United States' eligible voters in 2020. It is expected that more than 30 percent of eligible American voters will be nonwhite.[15]

A bipartisan report indicates that changes in voter demographics since the 2016 election could impact the results of the 2020 election. African Americans, Hispanics, Asians, and other ethnic minorities, as well as "whites with a college degree", are expected to all increase their percentage of national eligible voters by 2020, while "whites without a college degree" will decrease. Generation Z, those born after 1996, will more than double to 10% of the eligible voters.[16] It is possible Trump could win the Electoral College while still losing the popular vote, possibly by an even larger margin than in 2016.[17]

Simultaneous elections

The presidential election will occur simultaneously with elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives. Gubernatorial and legislative elections will also be held in several states. Following the election, the United States House will redistribute the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 United States Census, and the states will conduct a redistricting of Congressional and state legislative districts. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have redistricting commissions), and often a party that wins a presidential election experiences a coattail effect which also helps other candidates of that party win elections.[18] Therefore, the party that wins the 2020 presidential election could also win a significant advantage in the drawing of new Congressional and state legislative districts that would stay in effect until the 2032 elections.[19]

Issues unique to the 2020 election

Impeachment

The House of Representatives voted to impeach President Trump on two counts on December 18, 2019.[20] The trial in the Senate began on January 21, 2020,[21] and ended on February 5, resulting in acquittal by the United States Senate.[22]

This is the second time a president has been impeached during his first term while running for a second term.[23][b] Trump continued to hold campaign rallies during the impeachment.[24][25] This is also the first time since the modern presidential primaries were established in 1911 that a president has been subjected to impeachment while the primary season was underway.[26] The impeachment process overlapped with the primary campaigns, forcing senators running for the Democratic nomination to remain in Washington for the trial in the days before and after the Iowa caucuses.[27][28]

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic

States with at least one local, state, or federal primary election date or method of voting altered as of August 5, 2020.

Several events related to the 2020 presidential election have been altered or postponed due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. On March 10, following primary elections in six states, Democratic candidates Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders cancelled planned campaign night events and further in-person campaigning and campaign rallies.[29][30] On March 12, President Trump also stated his intent to postpone further campaign rallies.[31] The 11th Democratic debate was held on March 15 without an audience at the CNN studios in Washington, D.C.[32] Several states also postponed their primaries to a later date, including Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Ohio, and Maryland.[33] As of March 24, 2020, all major-party presidential candidates had halted in-person campaigning and campaign rallies over coronavirus concerns. Political analysts have stated that the moratorium on traditional campaigning coupled with the effects of the pandemic on the nation could have unpredictable effects on the voting populace and possibly, how the election will be conducted.[34][35][36]

Some presidential primary elections were severely disrupted by corona virus-related issues, including long lines at polling places, greatly increased requests for absentee ballots, and technology issues.[37] The number of polling places was often greatly reduced due to a shortage of election workers able or willing to work during the pandemic. Most states expanded or encouraged voting by mail as an alternative, but many voters complained that they never received the absentee ballots they had requested.[38]

The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act included money for states to increase mail-in voting. Trump and his campaign have strongly opposed mail-in-voting, claiming that it would cause widespread voter fraud, a belief which has been debunked by a number of media organizations.[39][40]

Government response to the impact of the pandemic from the Trump administration, coupled to the differing positions taken by congressional Democrats and Republicans regarding economic stimulus remains a major campaign issue for both parties.[41][42]

Due to the coronavirus pandemic spread in the United States, and the subsequent effects such as the stay-at-home order and social distancing guidelines by local governments, all presidential candidates are unable to hold campaign rallies and public gatherings. As a result, at the daily White House coronavirus briefing in April, President Trump played a campaign-style video talking about his early response to the coronavirus. According to the President, the mainstream media was responsible initially "downplaying the effects of the virus".[43]

On April 6, the Supreme Court and Republicans in the State Legislature of Wisconsin rebuffed Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers's request to move the election in Wisconsin to June. As a result, the election (among them was a presidential primary) went ahead as planned.[44] At least seven new cases of the coronavirus infection were traced to this election. Voting-rights advocates have expressed fear of similar chaos on a nationwide scale in November, recommending states to move to expand vote-by-mail options.[45]

On June 20, 2020, despite continuing concerns over COVID-19,[46] the Oklahoma Supreme Court ruled that Trump's campaign could hold a rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma at the Bank of Oklahoma (BOK) Center. Originally scheduled for June 19, the Trump campaign changed the date of this gathering due to the Juneteenth holiday. [47] 7.7 million people watched the event, a Saturday audience record for Fox News.[48]

Foreign interference

U.S. officials have accused Russia, China and Iran of trying to influence the 2020 United States elections.[49][50] On October 4, 2019, Microsoft announced that "Phosphorus", a group of hackers linked to the Iranian government, had attempted to compromise e-mail accounts belonging to journalists, U.S. government officials and the campaign of a U.S. presidential candidate.[51][52] The Voice of America reported in April 2020 that "Internet security researchers say there have already been signs that China-allied hackers have engaged in so-called 'spear-phishing' attacks on American political targets ahead of the 2020 vote."[53]

On February 13, 2020, American intelligence officials advised members of the House Intelligence Committee that Russia was interfering in the 2020 election in an effort to get Trump re-elected.[54] The briefing was delivered by Shelby Pierson, the intelligence community's top election security official and an aide to acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire. On February 21, The Washington Post reported that, according to unnamed U.S. officials, Russia was interfering in the Democratic primary in an effort to support the nomination of Senator Bernie Sanders. Sanders issued a statement after the news report, saying in part, "I don't care, frankly, who Putin wants to be president. My message to Putin is clear: stay out of American elections, and as president, I will make sure that you do."[55] Sanders acknowledged that his campaign was briefed about Russia's alleged efforts about a month prior.[56] Russia has repeatedly interfered in the election to support the candidacy of President Trump.[57] China and Iran have repeatedly interfered in the election to support the candidacy of Joe Biden.[58][59][60]

Potential rejection of election results

During the election, multiple articles have been published suggesting that Trump may not, or will not, accept the election results, owing primarily to his tweets suggesting that the election will be rigged against him and his own suggestions that he will not accept electoral defeat.[61][62] The White House has dismissed these suggestions and President Trump told Fox News' Harris Faulkner on June 5, 2020 that "[c]ertainly if I don't win, I don't win". On July 19, Trump declined to answer whether he would accept the results, telling Fox News anchor Chris Wallace that "I have to see. No, I'm not going to just say yes. I'm not going to say no."[63][64][65] At an August 17 campaign event in Oshkosh, Wisconsin, Trump said that "the only way we're going to lose this election is if this election is rigged".[66] Trump repeated this sentiment during an appearance at the 2020 Republican National Convention.[67] At a September 19 campaign rally at Fayetteville, North Carolina, Trump declared that "[y]ou can't have [Biden] as your president. Maybe I'll sign an executive order that you cannot have him as your president."[68]

On September 23, 2020, Trump again declined to commit to a peaceful transition of power after the election.[69] Congressional Republicans rebuked Trump by saying there would be a peaceful transition if Trump lost, although they did not explain how they would guarantee such a transition if Trump were to refuse leaving the presidency.[70] This has been described as a threat "to upend the constitutional order".[71] Trump also stated he expected the Supreme Court to decide the election and that he wanted a conservative majority in case of an election dispute, reiterating his commitment to have a 9th justice following the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg.[72]

Election delay suggestion

In April 2020, Biden suggested that Trump may try to delay the election, saying that Trump "is gonna try to kick back the election somehow, come up with some rationale why it can't be held".[73][74] On July 30, Trump tweeted that "With Universal Mail-In Voting (not Absentee Voting, which is good), 2020 will be the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT Election in history" and asked if it should be delayed until people can safely cast ballots in person. Experts have indicated that, for the election to be legally delayed, such a decision must be undertaken by Congress.[75][76] It has been noted by several legal experts that the Constitution sets the end of the presidential and vice-presidential terms as January 20, a hard deadline which cannot be altered by Congress.[77][78]

Voting by mail

Chart of July 2020 opinion survey on likelihood of voting by mail in November election.[79]

Voting by mail has become an increasingly common practice in the United States, with 25% of voters nationwide mailing their ballots in 2016 and 2018. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has been predicted to cause a large increase in mail voting because of the possible danger of congregating at polling places.[80] For the 2020 election, a state-by-state analysis concluded that 76% of Americans are eligible to vote by mail in 2020, a record number. The analysis predicted that 80 million ballots could be cast by mail in 2020--more than double the number in 2016.[81] The Postal Service sent a letter to multiple states in July 2020, warning that the service would not be able to meet the state's deadlines for requesting and casting last-minute absentee ballots.[82] In addition to the anticipated high volume of mailed ballots, the prediction was due in part to numerous measures taken by the Louis DeJoy, the newly installed Postmaster General of the United States, including banning overtime and extra trips to deliver mail,[83] which caused delays in delivering mail,[84] and dismantling and removing hundreds of high-speed mail sorting machines from postal centers.[85] On August 18, after the House of Representatives had been recalled from its August break to vote on a bill reversing the changes, DeJoy announced that he would roll back all the changes until after the November election. He said he would reinstate overtime hours, roll back service reductions, and halt the removal of mail-sorting machines and collection boxes.[86]

The House of Representatives voted an emergency grant of $25 billion to the post office to facilitate the predicted flood of mail ballots.[87] However, President Trump has repeatedly denounced mail voting, even though he himself votes by mail in Florida, a form of absentee voting. He defends this practice by differentiating between mail voting and absentee voting, defending the latter while condemning the former.[88] In August 2020, President Trump conceded that the post office would need additional funds to handle the additional mail-in voting, but said he would block any additional funding for the post office to prevent any increase in balloting by mail.[89]

President Trump has been very critical of voting by mail, often making allegations of massive voter fraud. In August 2020, a federal judge ordered Trump's campaign and the Republican Party to produce evidence of such fraud in Pennsylvania.[90] In September 2020, FBI Director Christopher A. Wray, who was appointed by Trump, testified under oath that the FBI has "not seen, historically, any kind of coordinated national voter fraud effort in a major election, whether it's by mail or otherwise".[91]

Federal Election Commission issues

The Federal Election Commission, which was created in 1974 to enforce campaign finance laws in federal elections, has not functioned since July 2020 due to vacancies in membership. In the absence of a quorum, the commission cannot vote on complaints or give guidance through advisory opinions.[92] As of May 19, 2020, there were 350 outstanding matters on the agency's enforcement docket and 227 items waiting for action.[93] As of September 1, 2020, President Trump has not nominated any person to fill the vacant positions, which are required to be submitted for Senate confirmation.

On July 28, The Campaign Legal Center filed a complaint alleging the Trump campaign was laundering millions of dollars.[94]

Supreme Court vacancy

On September 18, 2020, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell immediately stated that the precedent he set regarding Merrick Garland was inoperative and that a replacement would be voted on as soon as possible, setting the stage for a confirmation battle and an unexpected intrusion into the campaign.[95] The death of Justice Ginsburg resulted in large increases in momentum for both the Democrats and Republicans.[96][97]

The president,[98] Vice-President[99] and several Republican members of Congress[100][101] stated that a full complement of the court was needed to decide the upcoming election.

Nominations

Republican Party nomination

Primaries

In election cycles with incumbent presidents running for re-election, the race for the party nomination is usually pro-forma, with token opposition instead of any serious challengers and with their party rules being fixed in their favor.[102][103] The 2020 election was no exception; with Donald Trump formally seeking a second term,[104][105] the official Republican apparatus, both state and national, coordinated with his campaign to implement changes to make it difficult for any primary opponent to mount a serious challenge.[106][107] On January 25, 2019, the Republican National Committee unofficially endorsed Trump.[108]

Several Republican state committees scrapped their respective primaries or caucuses,[109] citing the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[110][111] After cancelling their races, some of those states, such as Hawaii and New York, immediately pledged their delegates to Trump,[112][113] while other such states like Kansas and Nevada later formally held a convention or meeting to officially award their delegates to him.[114][115]

In addition, the Trump campaign urged Republican state committees that used proportional methods to award delegates in 2016 (where a state's delegates are basically divided proportionally among the candidates based on the vote percentage) to switch to a "winner-takes-all" (where the winning candidate in a state gets all its delegates) or "winner-takes-most" (where the winning candidate only wins all of the state's delegates if he exceeds a predetermined amount, otherwise they are divided proportionally) for 2020.[103][116]

Nevertheless, reports arose beginning in August 2017 that members of the Republican Party were preparing a "shadow campaign" against the president, particularly from the moderate or establishment wings of the party. Then-Arizona senator John McCain said, "Republicans see weakness in this president."[117][118]Maine senator Susan Collins, Kentucky senator Rand Paul, and former New Jersey governor Chris Christie all expressed doubts in 2017 that Trump would be the 2020 nominee, with Collins stating, "It's too difficult to say."[119][120] Senator Jeff Flake claimed in 2017 that Trump was "inviting" a primary challenger by the way he was governing.[121] Longtime political strategist Roger Stone, however, predicted in May 2018 that Trump might not seek a second term were he to succeed in keeping all his campaign promises and "mak[ing] America great again".[122]

Former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld became Trump's first major challenger in the Republican primaries following an announcement on April 15, 2019.[123] Weld, who was the Libertarian Party's nominee for vice president in 2016, was considered a long shot because of the popularity of Trump within his own party and Weld's positions on issues such as abortion, gun control and same-sex marriage that conflicted with conservative positions on those issues.[124] In addition, businessman Rocky De La Fuente also entered the race, but was not widely recognized as a major candidate.[125][126]

Former Illinois representative Joe Walsh launched a primary challenge on August 25, 2019, saying, "I'm going to do whatever I can. I don't want [Trump] to win. The country cannot afford to have him win. If I'm not successful, I'm not voting for him."[127] Walsh ended his presidential bid on February 7, 2020, after drawing around 1% support in the Iowa caucuses. Walsh declared that "nobody can beat Trump in a Republican primary" because the Republican Party was now "a cult" of Trump. According to Walsh, Trump supporters had become "followers" who think that Trump "can do no wrong", after absorbing misinformation from conservative media. He stated, "They don't know what the truth is and--more importantly--they don't care."[128] On September 8, 2019, former South Carolina governor and representative Mark Sanford officially announced that he would be another Republican primary challenger to Trump.[129] He dropped out of the race 65 days later on November 12, 2019, after failing to gain support in Republican circles.[130]

Donald Trump's re-election campaign has essentially been ongoing since his victory in 2016, leading pundits to describe his tactic of holding rallies continuously throughout his presidency as a "never-ending campaign".[131] On January 20, 2017, at 5:11 p.m., he submitted a letter as a substitute of FEC Form 2, by which he reached the legal threshold for filing, in compliance with the Federal Election Campaign Act.[132] Trump ran an active campaign during the primary season, even holding rallies in the February primary states, including South Carolina and Nevada where Republican primaries were canceled.[133][134] Trump won every race and, having won enough delegates to ensure his nomination at the convention, became the presumptive nominee on March 17, 2020.[135] Weld suspended his campaign the next day.[136]

Nominee

Republican Party (United States)
2020 Republican Party ticket
Donald Trump Mike Pence
for President for Vice President
45th
President of the United States
(2017-present)
48th
Vice President of the United States
(2017-present)
Campaign
TrumpPenceKAG.png

Candidates

The following major candidates have either: (a) held public office, (b) been included in a minimum of five independent national polls, or (c) received substantial media coverage.[137][138][139]

Candidates in this section are sorted by popular vote
Bill Weld Joe Walsh Rocky De La Fuente Mark Sanford
Bill Weld campaign portrait.jpg
Rep Joe Walsh.jpg
Rocky De La Fuente1 (2) (cropped).jpg
Mark Sanford, Official Portrait, 113th Congress.jpg
Governor of Massachusetts
(1991-1997)
U.S. Representative from IL-08
(2011-2013)
Businessman and perennial candidate U.S. Representative from SC-01
(1995-2001, 2013-2019)
Governor of South Carolina
(2003-2011)
Bill Weld campaign 2020.png Joe Walsh 2020 Logo-black.svg Rocky De La Fuente 2020 presidential campaign logo.png Mark Sanford 2020.png
Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign
W: March 18, 2020
391,472 votes
1 delegate
W: February 7, 2020
169,713 votes

Accepted
3rd party nomination
April 23, 2020
85,306 votes

W: November 12, 2019
4,258 votes

[140][141] [142][143] [144][better source needed] [129][145]

Democratic Party nomination

Primaries

In August 2018, the Democratic National Committee voted to disallow superdelegates from voting on the first ballot of the nominating process, beginning with the 2020 election. This required a candidate to win a majority of pledged delegates from the assorted primary elections in order to win the party's nomination. The last time this did not occur was the nomination of Adlai Stevenson II at the 1952 Democratic National Convention.[146] Meanwhile, six states used ranked-choice voting in the primaries: Alaska, Hawaii, Kansas, and Wyoming for all voters; and Iowa and Nevada for absentee voters.[147]

After Hillary Clinton's loss in the previous election, the Democratic Party was seen largely as leaderless[148] and fractured between the centrist Clinton wing and the more progressive Sanders wing of the party, echoing the rift brought up in the 2016 primary election.[149][150] In 2018, several U.S. House districts that Democrats hoped to gain from the Republican majority had contentious primary elections. These clashes were described by Politicos Elena Schneider as a "Democratic civil war".[151] Meanwhile, there has been a general shift to the left in regards to college tuition, healthcare, and immigration among Democrats in the Senate.[152][153]

Overall, the 2020 primary field had 29 major candidates,[154] breaking the record for the largest field under the modern presidential primary system previously set during the 2016 GOP primaries with 17 major candidates.[155] Several female candidates entered the race, increasing the likelihood of the Democrats nominating a woman for the second time in a row.[156]

Entering the Iowa caucuses on February 3, 2020, the field had decreased to 11 major candidates. Pete Buttigieg narrowly defeated Bernie Sanders in Iowa, then Sanders edged out Buttigieg in the February 11, New Hampshire primary. Following Michael Bennet, Deval Patrick, and Andrew Yang dropping out, Sanders won the Nevada caucuses on February 22. Joe Biden then won the South Carolina primary, causing Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and Tom Steyer to abandon their campaigns (Buttigieg and Klobuchar then immediately endorsed Biden). After Super Tuesday, March 3, Michael Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren quit the race, leaving three candidates left: Biden and Sanders, the main contenders, and Tulsi Gabbard, who remained in the race despite facing nigh-on insurmountable odds.[157] Gabbard then dropped out and endorsed Biden after the March 17, Arizona, Florida, and Illinois races.[158] On April 8, 2020, Sanders dropped out, reportedly after being convinced by former president Barack Obama, leaving Biden as the only major candidate remaining, and the presumptive nominee.[159][160] Biden then gained endorsements from Obama, Sanders and Warren.[161] By June 5, 2020, Biden had officially gained enough delegates to ensure his nomination at the convention,[162] and proceeded to work with Sanders to develop a joint policy task force.[163]

Vice presidential selection

Senator Kamala Harris was announced as former vice president Joe Biden's running mate on August 11, 2020. If elected and inaugurated, Harris would be the second person of color to be vice-president (after Herbert Hoover's vice president Charles Curtis), first woman, first African-American, and first Asian-American vice president of the United States. She is the third female vice presidential running mate after Geraldine Ferraro in 1984 and Sarah Palin in 2008. She is the first person representing the Western United States to appear on the Democratic Party presidential ticket.[164]

Nominee

Democratic Party (United States)
2020 Democratic Party ticket
Joe Biden Kamala Harris
for President for Vice President
47th
Vice President of the United States
(2009-2017)
U.S. senator
from California
(2017-present)
Campaign
Biden Harris logo.svg

Candidates

The following major candidates have either: (a) served as vice president, a member of the cabinet, a U.S. senator, a U.S. representative, or a governor, (b) been included in a minimum of five independent national polls, or (c) received substantial media coverage.

Candidates in this section are sorted by date of withdrawal
Bernie Sanders Tulsi Gabbard Elizabeth Warren Michael Bloomberg Amy Klobuchar Pete Buttigieg Tom Steyer
Bernie Sanders March 2020 (cropped).jpg
Tulsi Gabbard (48011616441) (cropped).jpg
Elizabeth Warren by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg
Michael Bloomberg by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg
Amy Klobuchar by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg
Pete Buttigieg by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg
Tom Steyer by Gage Skidmore.jpg
U.S. senator from Vermont
(2007-present)
U.S. representative from VT-AL
(1991-2007)
Mayor of Burlington, Vermont
(1981-1989)
U.S. representative from HI-02
(2013-present)
U.S. senator from Massachusetts
(2013-present)
Mayor of New York City, New York
(2002-2013)
CEO of Bloomberg L.P.
U.S. senator from Minnesota
(2007-present)
Mayor of South Bend, Indiana
(2012-2020)
Hedge fund manager
Founder of Farallon Capital and Beneficial State Bank
Bernie Sanders 2020 logo.svg Tulsi Gabbard logo.svg Elizabeth Warren 2020 presidential campaign logo.svg Mike Bloomberg 2020 presidential campaign logo.svg Amy Klobuchar 2020 presidential campaign logo.svg Pete for America logo (Strato Blue).svg Tom Steyer 2020 logo (black text).svg
Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign
W: April 8, 2020

(endorsed Biden)
8,823,936 votes
1,073 delegates

W: March 19, 2020

(endorsed Biden)
233,079 votes
2 delegates

W: March 5, 2020

(endorsed Biden)
2,668,057 votes
58 delegates

W: March 4, 2020

(endorsed Biden)
2,430,062 votes
43 delegates

W: March 2, 2020

(endorsed Biden)
501,332 votes
7 delegates

W: March 1, 2020

(endorsed Biden)
874,727 votes
21 delegates

W: February 29, 2020

(endorsed Biden)
250,513 votes


[165][166] [167][168] [169][170] [171][172] [173][174] [175][176] [177][178]
Deval Patrick Michael Bennet Andrew Yang John Delaney Cory Booker Marianne Williamson Julián Castro
Deval Patrick 2016.jpg
Michael Bennet by Gage Skidmore.jpg
Andrew Yang by Gage Skidmore.jpg
John Delaney by Gage Skidmore.jpg
Cory Booker by Gage Skidmore.jpg
Marianne Williamson November 2019.jpg
Julian Castro 2019 crop.jpg
Governor of Massachusetts
(2007-2015)
U.S. senator from Colorado
(2009-present)
Entrepreneur
Founder of Venture for America
U.S. representative from MD-06
(2013-2019)
U.S. senator from New Jersey
(2013-present)
Mayor of Newark, New Jersey
(2006-2013)
Author
Founder of Project Angel Food
Independent candidate for U.S. House from CA-33 in 2014
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development
(2014-2017)
Mayor of San Antonio, Texas
(2009-2014)
Devallogo2020.png Michael Bennet 2020 presidential campaign logo.svg Andrew Yang 2020 logo.svg John Delaney 2020 logo.svg Cory Booker 2020 Logo.svg Marianne Williamson 2020 presidential campaign logo.svg Julian Castro 2020 presidential campaign logo.svg
Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign
W: February 12, 2020

(endorsed Biden)
20,761 votes

W: February 11, 2020

(endorsed Biden)
43,682 votes

W: February 11, 2020

(endorsed Biden)
119,862 votes

W: January 31, 2020

(endorsed Biden)
15,985 votes

W: January 13, 2020

(endorsed Biden)
30,191 votes

W: January 10, 2020

(endorsed Sanders)
21,993 votes

W: January 2, 2020

(endorsed Warren, then Biden)
36,694 votes

[179][180] [181][182] [183][184] [185][186] [187][188] [189][190] [191][192]
Kamala Harris Steve Bullock Joe Sestak Wayne Messam Beto O'Rourke Tim Ryan Bill de Blasio
Kamala Harris April 2019.jpg
Steve Bullock by Gage Skidmore.jpg
Joe Sestak August 2019 (3) (cropped).jpg
Wayne Messam by Marc Nozell (cropped).jpg
Beto O'Rourke April 2019.jpg
Tim Ryan by Gage Skidmore.jpg
Bill de Blasio by Gage Skidmore.jpg
U.S. senator from California
(2017-present)
Attorney General of California
(2011-2017)
Governor of Montana
(2013-present)
Attorney General of Montana
(2009-2013)
U.S. representative from PA-07
(2007-2011)
Former vice admiral of the United States Navy
Mayor of Miramar, Florida
(2015-present)
U.S. representative from TX-16
(2013-2019)
U.S. representative from OH-13
(2013-present)
U.S. representative from OH-17
(2003-2013)
Mayor of New York City, New York
(2014-present)
Kamala Harris 2020 presidential campaign logo.svg Steve Bullock 2020 presidential campaign logo.svg N/A Wayne Messam 2020 presidential campaign logo.png Beto O'Rourke 2020 presidential campaign logo.svg Timryan2020.png Bill de Blasio 2020 presidential campaign logo.svg
Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign
W: December 3, 2019

(endorsed Biden and
nominated for vice president)

844 votes

W: December 2, 2019


549 votes

W: December 1, 2019

(endorsed Klobuchar)
5,251 votes

W: November 19, 2019


0 votes[c]

W: November 1, 2019

(endorsed Biden)
1 vote[c]

W: October 24, 2019

(endorsed Biden)
0 votes[c]

W: September 20, 2019

(endorsed Sanders)
0 votes[c]

[193][194] [195][196] [197][198] [199][200] [201][202] [203][204] [205][206]
Kirsten Gillibrand Seth Moulton Jay Inslee John Hickenlooper Mike Gravel Eric Swalwell Richard Ojeda
Kirsten Gillibrand August 2019.jpg
Seth Moulton August 2019.jpg
Jay Inslee by Gage Skidmore.jpg
John Hickenlooper by Gage Skidmore.jpg
Mike Gravel cropped.png
Eric Swalwell (48016282941) (cropped).jpg
MAJ Richard Ojeda.jpg
U.S. senator from New York
(2009-present)
U.S. representative from NY-20
(2007-2009)
U.S. representative from MA-06
(2015-present)
Governor of Washington
(2013-present)
U.S. representative from WA-01
(1999-2012)
U.S. representative from WA-04
(1993-1995)
Governor of Colorado
(2011-2019)
Mayor of Denver, Colorado
(2003-2011)
U.S. senator from Alaska
(1969-1981)
U.S. representative from CA-15
(2013-present)
West Virginia state senator from WV-SD07
(2016-2019)
Gillibrand 2020 logo.png Seth Moulton 2020 presidential campaign logo.svg Jay Inslee 2020 logo3.png John Hickenlooper 2020 presidential campaign logo.png Gravel Mg web logo line two color.svg Eric Swalwell 2020 presidential campaign logo.svg N/A
Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign
W: August 28, 2019

(endorsed Biden)
0 votes[c]

W: August 23, 2019

(endorsed Biden)
0 votes[c]

W: August 21, 2019

(endorsed Biden)
1 vote[c]

W: August 15, 2019

(endorsed Bennet)
1 vote[c]

W: August 6, 2019

(endorsed Gabbard and Sanders, then Howie Hawkins)
0 votes[c]

W: July 8, 2019


0 votes[c]

W: January 25, 2019


0 votes[c]

[207][208] [209][210] [211][212] [213][214] [215][216] [217][218] [219][220]

Other parties and independent candidates

Libertarian Party nomination

Jo Jorgensen, who was the running mate of author Harry Browne in 1996, received the Libertarian nomination at the national convention on May 23, 2020.[221] She achieved ballot access in all 50 states and the District of Columbia on September 8, 2020, when her Rhode Island petition was verified by the Secretary of State.[222]

Nominee
Libertarian Party (United States)
2020 Libertarian Party ticket
Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen
for President for Vice President
Senior Lecturer at Clemson University Podcaster and businessman
Campaign
Jo Jorgensen 2020 campaign logo 2.png
Candidates
Candidates in this section are sorted by date of withdrawal
Jacob Hornberger Vermin Supreme John Monds Jim Gray Adam Kokesh Dan Behrman
Jacob Hornberger by Gage Skidmore (cropped) (3).jpg
Vermin Supreme August 2019 (cropped).jpg
Jim Gray (cropped).jpg
Kokesh2013 (cropped).jpg
Dan-taxation-is-theft-behrman (cropped) (2).jpg
Founder and President of the Future of Freedom Foundation Performance artist, activist, and political satirist Former president of the
Grady County, Georgia, NAACP
Former presiding judge for the
Superior Court of Orange County, California
Libertarian and anti-war political activist Software engineer and podcaster
Jacob Hornberger 2020 campaign logo.png Vermin Supreme 2020 - Free Ponies For All - Campaign Logo.jpg N/A N/A N/A Dan Behrman 2020 campaign logo.png
N/A Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign N/A
W: May 23, 2020
8,986 votes
(20.55%)
236 first round delegates
W: May 23, 2020
4,288 votes
(9.81%)
171 first round delegates
W: May 23, 2020
1 vote
(<0.01%)
147 first round delegates
W: May 23, 2020
42 votes
(0.10%)
98 first round delegates
W: May 23, 2020
2,728 votes
(6.24%)
77 first round delegates
W: May 23, 2020
2,337 votes
(5.34%)
0 first round delegates
[221] [221] [223] [224] [225] [226]
Sam Robb Justin Amash Ken Armstrong Lincoln Chafee Max Abramson Kim Ruff
Sam Robb Campaign Photo for 2020 Election (cropped).jpg
Justin Amash official photo (cropped).jpg
Ken Armstrong POTUS46 Headshot (cropped).jpg
Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee - 140526-N-PX557-166 (14290233225) (cropped).jpg
Max suit small (cropped).jpg
Kim Ruff (50280804772) (cropped).jpg
Software engineer and author
Former naval officer
U.S. representative
from MI-03
(2011-present)
U.S. Coast Guard
commissioned officer
(1977-1994)
Governor of Rhode Island
(2011-2015)
U.S. senator from Rhode Island
(1999-2007)

New Hampshire state representative
(2014-2016; 2018-present)
Vice chair of the
LPRadical Caucus
Sam Robb Campaign Logo for 2020 candidacy.png N/A N/A N/A Max Abramson 2020 logo.png RuffPhillips 2020 campaign logo.png
Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign Campaign N/A
W: May 23, 2020
1,943 votes
(5.06%)
0 first round delegates
W: May 17, 2020
3 votes
(0.01%)
17 first round delegates
W: April 29, 2020
3,509 votes
(8.03%)
0 first round delegates
W: April 5, 2020
294 votes
(0.67%)
1 (write-in) first round delegate
W: March 3, 2020
2,052 votes
(5.34%)
0 first round delegates
W: January 11, 2020
3,045 votes
(7.93%)
0 first round delegates
[226] [227] [228] [229] [230] [231]

Green Party nomination

Howie Hawkins became the presumptive nominee of the Green Party on June 21, 2020, and was officially nominated by the party on July 11, 2020.[232][233] Hawkins has also been nominated by the Socialist Party USA, Solidarity, Socialist Alternative, and the Legal Marijuana Now Party.[234] Hawkins has secured ballot access to 381 electoral votes as of September 20, 2020, and has write-in access to 133 electoral votes.[235]

Nominee
Green Party (United States)
2020 Green Party ticket
Howie Hawkins Angela Walker
for President for Vice President
Co-founder of the Green Party ATU Local 998 Legislative Director
(2011-2013)
Campaign
Hawkins Walker Logo.png
Candidates
Candidates in this section are sorted by delegate count
Dario Hunter
Officially Recognized
Sedinam Moyowasifza-Curry Dennis Lambert Jesse Ventura David Rolde
Officially Recognized
Dario Hunter headshot.jpg
SKCM Curry 2 (cropped).png
Dennis Lambert (1).jpg
JesseVentura1.jpg
David Rolde (Green Party US) (1).jpg
Member of the Youngstown Board of Education (2016-2020) Activist Documentary Filmmaker Governor of Minnesota (1999-2003) Co-chair of the Greater Boston Chapter of the Green-Rainbow Party
Dario Hunter 2020 (1).png Sedinam 2020 Logo.png N/A N/A N/A
Campaign N/A N/A N/A N/A
89.5 delegates
(20.1%)
3,087 votes
10.5 delegates
(3.0%)
2,229 votes
9 delegates
(2.6%)
2,029 votes
8 delegates
(1.7%)
>49 votes
5.5 delegates
(1.6%)
960 votes
[236] [237] [238] No Candidacy [239]

Other third party and independent candidates

Various other minor party and independent candidate campaigns are on the ballot in several states, the most notable of these are activist and writer Gloria La Riva,[240] businessman and perennial candidate Rocky De La Fuente,[241] coal executive Don Blankenship,[242] entreprenuer Brock Pierce,[243] rapper Kanye West,[244] and educator Brian Carroll.[245]

Party conventions

Map of United States showing Milwaukee, Charlotte, and Austin.
Milwaukee
Milwaukee
Charlotte
Charlotte
Virtual
Virtual
Virtual
Virtual
  Democratic Party
  Republican Party
  Libertarian Party (virtual)
  Green Party (virtual)

The 2020 Democratic National Convention was originally scheduled for July 13-16 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin,[246][247] but was delayed to August 17-20 due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.[248] On June 24, 2020, it was announced that the convention would be held in a mixed online-in person format, with most delegates attending remotely but a few still attending the physical convention site.[249] On August 5, the in-person portion of the Convention was scaled down even further, with major speeches including Biden's being switched to a virtual format.[250]

The 2020 Republican National Convention took place from August 24–27 in Charlotte, North Carolina and various remote locations. Originally, a three-day convention was planned to be held in North Carolina, but due to North Carolina's insistence that the convention follow COVID-19 social distancing rules, the speeches and celebrations were moved to Jacksonville, Florida (official convention business was still contractually obligated to be conducted in Charlotte).[251][252] However, due to the worsening situation with regards to COVID-19 in Florida, the plans there were cancelled, and the convention was moved back to Charlotte in a scaled-down capacity.[253]

The 2020 Libertarian National Convention was originally going to be held in Austin, Texas, over Memorial Day weekend from May 22 to 25,[254][255] but all reservations at the JW Marriott Downtown Austin for the convention were cancelled on April 26 due to the coronavirus pandemic.[256] It was eventually decided by the Libertarian National Committee that the party would hold two conventions, one online from May 22-24 to select the presidential and vice-presidential nominees and one at a physical convention in Orlando, Florida, from July 8-12 for other business.[257]

The 2020 Green National Convention was originally to be held in Detroit, Michigan, from July 9 to 12.[258] However, due to the 2020 coronavirus pandemic, it was instead decided to conduct the convention online, without a change in date.[259]

Endorsements

General election debates

Map of United States showing debate locations
Case Western Reserve University
Case Western Reserve University
University of Utah
University of Utah
Adrienne Arsht Center
Adrienne Arsht Center
Belmont University
Belmont University
Sites of the 2020 general election debates

On October 11, 2019, the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) announced that three general election debates would be held in the fall of 2020. The first is scheduled to take place on September 29, and is being co-hosted by Case Western Reserve University and the Cleveland Clinic in Cleveland, Ohio.[260] The debate was originally to be hosted at the University of Notre Dame in Notre Dame, Indiana, but the university decided against holding the debate as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.[260][261] The second is scheduled to take place on October 15 at the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts in Miami, and the third is scheduled to take place on October 22 at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee.[262][263] The second debate was initially set to be held at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, Michigan, but the university withdrew in June 2020, reportedly over concerns regarding the COVID-19 pandemic.[264] Additionally, one vice presidential debate is scheduled for October 7, 2020, at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City.[265]

Debates for the 2020 U.S. presidential election sponsored by the CPD
No. Date Time Host City Moderator(s) Participants Viewership

(millions)

P1 September 29, 2020 9:00 p.m. EDT Case Western Reserve University Cleveland, Ohio Chris Wallace Donald Trump
Joe Biden
TBD
VP October 7, 2020 7:00 p.m. MDT University of Utah Salt Lake City, Utah Susan Page Mike Pence
Kamala Harris
TBD
P2 October 15, 2020 9:00 p.m. EDT Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts Miami, Florida Steve Scully Donald Trump
Joe Biden
TBD
P3 October 22, 2020 8:00 p.m. CDT Belmont University Nashville, Tennessee Kristen Welker Donald Trump
Joe Biden
TBD

The Free & Equal Elections Foundation is scheduled to host a general election debate on October 8, 2020 in Denver, Colorado, with participation open to candidates on the ballot in at least 8 states.[245]

General election polling

State predictions

Most election predictors use:

  • tossup: no advantage
  • tilt: advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • lean: slight advantage
  • likely: significant, but surmountable, advantage (*highest rating given by CBS News and NPR)
  • safe or solid: near-certain chance of victory
Alabama 9 R+14 62.1% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Alaska 3 R+9 51.3% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Tossup Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Arizona 11 R+5 48.9% R Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Likely D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip)
Arkansas 6 R+15 60.6% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R
California 55 D+12 61.7% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Colorado 9 D+1 48.2% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Likely D
Connecticut 7 D+6 54.6% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Lean D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D
Delaware 3 D+6 53.1% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D
District of
Columbia
3 D+41 90.9% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Florida 29 R+2 49.0% R Tossup Tilt D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Likely D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup
Georgia 16 R+5 50.8% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Hawaii 4 D+18 62.2% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Idaho 4 R+19 59.3% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Illinois 20 D+7 55.8% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D
Indiana 11 R+9 56.8% R Likely R Safe R Likely R Safe R Lean R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R
Iowa 6 R+3 51.2% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Lean R
Kansas 6 R+13 56.7% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Kentucky 8 R+15 62.5% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Louisiana 8 R+11 58.1% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Maine 2 D+3 47.8% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Lean D Lean D Safe D Safe D Likely D
(only statewide
rating given)
Likely D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Likely D
ME-1 1 D+8 54.0% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D
ME-2 1 R+2 51.3% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Likely R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup
Maryland 10 D+12 60.3% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Massachusetts 11 D+12 60.1% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Michigan 16 D+1 47.5% R Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip)
Minnesota 10 D+1 46.4% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D
Mississippi 6 R+9 57.9% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Likely R
Missouri 10 R+9 56.8% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Lean R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Montana 3 R+11 56.2% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Nebraska 2 R+14 58.8% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R
(only statewide
rating given)
Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R
NE-1 1 R+11 56.2% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R
NE-2 1 R+4 47.2% R Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean R Tossup Lean D (flip)
NE-3 1 R+27 73.9% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Nevada 6 D+1 47.9% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Tossup Safe D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D
New Hampshire 4 D+1 47.0% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Safe D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D
New Jersey 14 D+7 55.0% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D
New Mexico 5 D+3 48.4% D Safe D Safe D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Safe D Likely D Likely D Likely D Safe D Lean D Likely D Solid D
New York 29 D+11 59.0% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D
North Carolina 15 R+3 49.8% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
North Dakota 3 R+16 63.0% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Ohio 18 R+3 51.7% R Tossup Tilt R Lean R Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup
Oklahoma 7 R+20 65.3% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Oregon 7 D+5 50.1% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Lean D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Likely D Likely D
Pennsylvania 20 EVEN 48.2% R Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip)
Rhode Island 4 D+10 54.4% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D
South Carolina 9 R+8 54.9% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Lean R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R
South Dakota 3 R+14 61.5% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Tennessee 11 R+14 60.7% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Texas 38 R+8 52.2% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Lean R
Utah 6 R+20 45.5% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R
Vermont 3 D+15 56.7% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D
Virginia 13 D+1 49.7% D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Safe D Likely D Likely D Likely D Safe D Lean D Likely D Solid D
Washington 12 D+7 52.5% D Safe D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D
West Virginia 5 R+19 68.5% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Wisconsin 10 EVEN 47.2% R Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Likely D (flip) Tossup Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip)
Wyoming 3 R+25 67.4% R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R
Overall 538 D: 290
R: 163
Tossup: 85
D: 319
R: 187
Tossup: 32
D: 268
R: 203
Tossup: 67
D: 268
R: 203
Tossup: 67
D: 222
R: 125
Tossup: 191
D: 318
R: 123
Tossup: 97
D: 268
R: 170
Tossup: 100
D: 334
R: 204
Tossup: 0
D: 279
R: 163
Tossup: 96
D: 278
R: 169
Tossup: 91
D: 308
R: 187
Tossup: 43
D: 297
R: 170
Tossup: 71
D: 319
R: 125
Tossup: 94
D: 290
R: 169
Tossup: 79

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Trump's official state of residence was New York in the 2016 election but has since changed to Florida, with his permanent residence switching from Trump Tower to Mar-a-Lago in 2019.[1]
  2. ^ Andrew Johnson received votes during the 1868 Democratic National Convention, four months after having been impeached.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Candidate did not appear on any ballots.
  4. ^ Tossup: 50%-59%, Lean: 60%-74%, Likely: 75%-94%, Solid: 95%-100%

References

  1. ^ Choi, Matthew (October 31, 2019). "Trump, a symbol of New York, is officially a Floridian now". Politico. Retrieved 2019.
  2. ^ "3 U.S.C. § 7 - U.S. Code - Unannotated Title 3. The President § 7. Meeting and vote of electors", FindLaw.com.
  3. ^ "US Election guide: how does the election work?". The Daily Telegraph. November 6, 2012. Archived from the original on November 10, 2015. Retrieved 2015.
  4. ^ Miller, Kevin (August 26, 2019). "Maine Senate passes ranked-choice voting for March presidential primaries". Portland Press Herald. Retrieved 2019.
  5. ^ Shepherd, Michael (August 28, 2019). "Maine might switch to a ranked-choice presidential election. Here's how it would look". CBS 13. Retrieved 2019.
  6. ^ Shepherd, Michael (September 6, 2019). "Maine will use ranked-choice voting in next year's presidential election -- but not the 2020 primaries". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved 2019.
  7. ^ Piper, Jessica (August 28, 2020). "Maine secretary of state appeals decision putting ranked-choice voting challenge on ballot". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved 2020.
  8. ^ Leary, Mal (August 26, 2020). "Judge: Ranked-Choice Voting Repeal Qualifies For Maine November Ballot". WBUR. Retrieved 2020.
  9. ^ Mannino, Gabrielle (September 2020). "Ranked choice voting for president still uncertain following court ruling". News Cener Maine. Retrieved 2020.
  10. ^ "Maine ballots sent to printer with ranked-choice voting for president, no people's veto". WGME. September 9, 2020. Retrieved 2020.
  11. ^ Reimann, Nicholas (September 8, 2020). "Maine Will Be The First-Ever State To Use Ranked-Choice Voting For A Presidential Election". Forbes. Retrieved 2020.
  12. ^ Mannino, Gabrielle. "Court rules in favor of Sec. of State clearing way for RCV in presidential election". newscentermaine.com. Retrieved 2020.
  13. ^ Berman, Russell (September 20, 2019). "A Step Toward Blowing Up the Presidential-Voting System". The Atlantic. Retrieved 2020.
  14. ^ Muller, Derek T. (July 10, 2019). "Maine, ranked choice voting, and the National Popular Vote Compact". Excess of Democracy. Retrieved 2020.
  15. ^ Weeks, Linton (January 25, 2013). "Forget 2016. The Pivotal Year In Politics May Be 2020". NPR. Archived from the original on October 6, 2015. Retrieved 2015.
  16. ^ Cilluffo, Anthony (January 30, 2019). "An early look at the 2020 electorate". Pew Research Center.
  17. ^ Chinni, Dante (April 22, 2018). "Demographic shifts show 2020 presidential race could be close". NBC News. Archived from the original on April 23, 2018. Retrieved 2018.
  18. ^ Campbell, James E. (March 1986). "Presidential Coattails and Midterm Losses in State Legislative Elections". The American Political Science Review. 80 (1): 45-63. doi:10.2307/1957083. JSTOR 1957083.
  19. ^ Sarlin, Benjy (August 26, 2014). "Forget 2016: Democrats already have a plan for 2020". MSNBC. Archived from the original on October 28, 2015.
  20. ^ Fandos, Nicholas; Shear, Michael D. (December 18, 2019). "Trump Impeached for Abuse of Power and Obstruction of Congress". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2019.
  21. ^ Naylor, Brian; Walsh, Dierdre (January 21, 2020). "After 13 Hours Of Fiery Debate, Senate Adopts Impeachment Trial Rules". NPR. Retrieved 2020.
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