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The site is based around the employment of scientific techniques on data about Britain's electoral geography, which can be used to calculate the uniform national swing. It takes account of national polls and trends but excludes local issues.
The calculations were initially based on what is termed the Transition Model, which is derived from the additive uniform national swing model. This uses national swings in a proportional manner to predict local effects. The Strong Transition Model was introduced in October 2007, and considers the effects of strong and weak supporters. The models are explained in detail on the web site.
Across the seven general elections from 1992 to 2017:
EC correctly predicted the party which won the most seats in six out of seven (all except 1992).
EC correctly predicted the majority party in three (1997, 2001, 2005) and the hung parliament outcome in 2010.
The mean polling error for the two largest parties was 4.8%.
It was listed by The Guardian in 2004 as one of the "100 most useful websites", being "the best" for predictions. In 2012 it was described by PhD student Chris Prosser at the University of Oxford as "probably the leading vote/seat predictor on the internet". Its detailed predictions for individual seats have been noted by Paul Evans on the localdemocracy.org.uk blog. Academic Nick Anstead noted in his observations from a 2010 Personal Democracy Forum event, that Mick Fealty of Slugger O'Toole considered Electoral Calculus to be "massively improved" in comparison with the swingometer.
^ ab"Electoral Calculus". Intute. Retrieved 2011. An independent UK election prediction site maintained by Martin Baxter. He attempts to apply scientific techniques to the electoral geography of Britain to predict the future general election results.