United States Senate Election in Montana, 2014
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United States Senate Election in Montana, 2014

United States Senate election in Montana, 2014

← 2008 November 4, 2014 2020 →
  Steve Daines official Senate portrait.jpg No image.svg
Nominee Steve Daines Amanda Curtis
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 213,709 148,184
Percentage 57.8% 40.1%

Montana Senate Election Results by County, 2014.svg
County results
Daines:      50-60%      60-70%      70-80%      80-90%
Curtis:      50-60%      60-70%

U.S. Senator before election

John Walsh
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Steve Daines
Republican

The 2014 United States Senate election in Montana took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate from Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Democratic Senator Max Baucus, who had announced he would retire and not seek a seventh term in office, resigned from the Senate in February 2014 in order to accept an appointment as United States Ambassador to China. Democrat John Walsh, the Lieutenant Governor of Montana, who was already running for Baucus' seat when Baucus was named to the ambassadorship, was appointed to replace Baucus by Governor Steve Bullock.[1]

Walsh won the Democratic primary on June 3, but withdrew from the race on August 7, 2014 due to allegations that he had plagiarized a term paper while attending the Army War College.[2] Democrats selected Amanda Curtis, a state representative from Butte, to replace Walsh as the party's nominee at a convention in Helena on August 16.[3]Steve Daines, the sole U.S. Representative for the state of Montana, easily won the Republican nomination. This is the 1st open seat election since 1978.

Daines defeated Curtis by a 57.9% to 40.0% with Libertarian Roger Roots winning 2.2%. Daines and Arkansas' Tom Cotton became just the 18th and 19th U.S. House freshmen to win U.S. Senate races over the last 100 years, and just the third and fourth over the last 40 years.[4] He became the first Republican to win this Senate seat since 1913.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

John Walsh

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Walsh
Dirk
Adams
John
Bohlinger
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 15-17, 2013 381 ± 5% 39% 3% 31% -- 27%
Harper Polling January 20-22, 2014 519 ± 4.3% 23% 2% 23% -- 52%

Results

Democratic primary results[33]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Walsh (incumbent) 48,665 64.04%
Democratic John Bohlinger 17,187 22.62%
Democratic Dirk Adams 10,139 13.34%
Total votes 75,991 100.00%

Democratic convention

Because Walsh withdrew, a nominating convention was held to pick a new nominee prior to August 20.[34] The state party called a convention for August 16, and voting delegates were members of the State Central Committee, specifically: "one chair and one vice chair from each existing county central committee; one state committeeman and one state committeewoman from each county central committee; all voting members of the State Party Executive Board; the president of each chartered organization of the Montana Democratic Party; Montana State House leadership, and Montana State Senate leaders, and all Democrats currently holding statewide or federal office."[35]

Candidates

Momentary buzz was created by a movement to draft actor Jeff Bridges for the nomination, with over 1,000 people signing a petition on Change.org and a Twitter account, DudeSenator, being created online. Bridges, who lives part-time and owns property in the Paradise Valley south of Livingston, Montana, declined the offer on the Howard Stern show, noting the disapproval of his wife. Other news outlets noted that he also was not registered to vote in Montana.[36][37]

Potential

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Amanda Curtis

Elected officials

Organizations

Results

Democratic convention results[62]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Amanda Curtis 82 64.0%
Democratic Dirk Adams 46 36.0%
Total votes 128 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Steve Daines

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Daines
Champ
Edmunds
Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 15-17, 2013 469 ± 4.5% 66% 7% 27%

Results

Republican primary results[33]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Steve Daines 110,565 83.37%
Republican Susan Cundiff 11,909 8.98%
Republican Champ Edmunds 10,151 7.65%
Total votes 132,625 100.00%

Libertarian nomination

Candidates

Declared

Independents

Candidates

Declined

General election

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[85] Solid R November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[86] Safe R November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[87] Safe R November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[88] Safe R November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Daines (R)
Amanda
Curtis (D)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports August 18-19, 2014 750 ± 4% 55% 35% 2% 8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 - September 2, 2014 684 ± 5% 53% 35% 1% 11%
Gravis Marketing September 29-30, 2014 535 ± 4% 54% 41% -- 5%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 - October 1, 2014 549 ± 5% 55% 34% 0% 10%
The MSU-Billings Poll October 6-11, 2014 410 ± 5% 46.7% 30.6% 2.2%[89] 20.5%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16-23, 2014 497 ± 6% 56% 38% 0% 6%
Gravis Marketing October 23-24, 2014 604 ± 4% 53% 39% -- 8%

Results

United States Senate election in Montana, 2014[91]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Steve Daines 213,709 57.79% +30.71%
Democratic Amanda Curtis 148,184 40.07% -32.85%
Libertarian Roger Roots 7,933 2.14% N/A
Total votes 369,826 100.0% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

See also

References

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  2. ^ Johnson, Charles (August 7, 2014). "Walsh drops out of U.S. Senate race". Billings Gazette. Retrieved 2014.
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  4. ^ Ostermeier, Eric (November 17, 2014). "Will a Freshman US Representative Win a Senate Seat in 2016?". Smart Politics.
  5. ^ Dennison, Mike (August 14, 2013). "Wilsall rancher/political unknown says he's running as Democrat for Baucus' Senate seat". Billings Gazette.
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  32. ^ "VoteVets PAC Endorses Walsh for Senate". VoteVets.org. December 2, 2013. Archived from the original on December 5, 2013. Retrieved 2013.
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  89. ^ a b c Roger Roots (L)
  90. ^ Roger Roots (L) 4%, Other 5%
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External links


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