United States Presidential Election in New York, 2004
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United States Presidential Election in New York, 2004
2004 United States presidential election in New York

← 2000 November 2, 2004 2008 →
Turnout62.44%
  John F. Kerry.jpg George-W-Bush.jpeg
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 31 0
Popular vote 4,314,280 2,962,567
Percentage 58.37% 40.08%

New york presidential results 2004.svg
County Results

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in New York took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 31 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

New York was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry with an 18.3% margin of victory. Kerry took 58.37% of the vote to Bush's 40.08%. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. The last Republican presidential nominee to have carried the state of New York was Ronald Reagan in 1984. As of the 2016 presidential election, this remains the last presidential election the Republicans won over 40% of the vote in New York. Despite being a "safe blue state", this was the best showing for a Republican candidate in New York since 1988. This can largely be attributed to increased support for President Bush after the 9/11 attacks.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Democrat
  2. Associated Press: Solid Kerry
  3. CNN: Kerry
  4. Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
  5. Newsweek: Solid Kerry
  6. New York Times: Solid Kerry
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Kerry
  8. Research 2000: Solid Kerry
  9. Washington Post: Kerry
  10. Washington Times: Solid Kerry
  11. Zogby International: Kerry
  12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Kerry won every single pre-election poll, and all but one with a double-digit margin and with at least 49%. The final 3-poll average showed Kerry leading 55% to 38%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $11,994,227.[3] Kerry raised $27,733,309.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign.[5][6]

Geographic analysis

The voters of the five boroughs of New York City were the main force responsible for Kerry's decisive victory in the state. Kerry won New York City by an overwhelming margin, taking 1,828,015 votes to Bush's 587,534, a 74.99% to 24.10% victory. Excluding New York City's votes, John Kerry still would have carried New York State, but by a reduced margin, taking 2,486,265 votes to Bush's 2,375,033 votes, a 51.14% - 48.86% victory.

The New York suburbs consist of Long Island, Westchester and Rockland counties. Traditionally Republican, this area went clearly Democratic through the past few decades, with the arrival of people from New York City. However, in this area where many voters commute to Manhattan, Bush did better than expected. Although he clearly lost these counties to Gore in 2000 with 39.55% to 56.42%, or 655,665 votes to 935,456, he only lost them by a close 46.13% to 52.30% to Kerry. While Bush won 167,397 more votes than in 2000, Kerry lost 2,437. This can be mainly explained by the concerns of suburban moderate voters about terrorism, an issue about which they trusted Bush more than Kerry.

Upstate New York region, including all of the counties that are not part of New York City or its suburbs, is the least liberal region of the three. Its politics are very similar to those of Ohio or Pennsylvania, both key swing states and sharing conservative rural areas. Despite this characteristic, Senator Kerry still managed a slim victory in Upstate New York, with 1,553,246 votes to 1,551,971 for Bush. This was largely due to a Democratic tidal wave in the region's four largest cities--Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and Albany. Kerry also ran strongly in college dominated Tompkins County and two counties with an influx of former New York City residents moving to vacation homes, Ulster County and Columbia County.

As of the 2016 presidential election, this is the last election in which Rockland and Dutchess counties voted for the Republican candidate.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in New York[7]
Party Candidate Popular votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Kerry 4,180,755 56.57%
Working Families John Kerry 133,525 1.81%
Total John Forbes Kerry 4,314,280 58.37% 31
Republican George W. Bush 2,806,993 37.98%
Conservative George W. Bush 155,574 2.10%
Total George Walker Bush (Incumbent) 2,962,567 40.08% 0
Independence Ralph Nader 84,247 1.14%
Peace and Justice Ralph Nader 15,626 0.21%
Total Ralph Nader 99,873 1.35% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 11,607 0.16% 0
Socialist Workers Roger Calero 2,405 0.03% 0
Constitution (Write-In) Michael Peroutka 363 >0.01% 0
Green (Write-In) David Cobb 138 >0.01% 0
Independent (Write-In) John J. Kennedy 8 >0.01% 0
Independent (Write-In) Michael Halpin 4 >0.01% 0
Socialist Equality Bill Van Auken 4 >0.01% 0
Totals 7,391,036 100% 31
Voter turnout: 62.44%

Results breakdown

By congressional district

Kerry won 20 of 29 congressional districts.[8]

By county

County Kerry% Kerry# Bush% Bush# Others% Others# Total
Albany 60.7 89,323 37.3% 54,872 2.0% 3,004 145,722
Allegany 34.1% 6,566 63.9 12,310 2.0% 394 19,270
Bronx 82.8% 283,994 16.5% 56,701 0.7% 2,234 342,929
Broome 50.4% 46,281 47.4% 43,568 2.2% 2,041 91,890
Cattaraugus 39.4% 13,514 58.5% 20,051 2.0% 697 34,262
Cayuga 48.6% 17,534 49.2% 17,743 2.1% 775 36,052
Chautauqua 44.7% 27,257 53.2% 32,434 2.1% 1,253 60,944
Chemung 43.7% 17,080 54.6% 21,321 1.7% 674 39,075
Chenango 43.5% 9,277 54.3% 11,582 2.3% 482 '21,341
Clinton 52.2% 17,624 45.4% 15,330 2.3% 782 33,736
Columbia 51.2% 15,929 46.5% 14,457 2.3% 717 31,103
Cortland 46.9% 10,670 51.0% 11,613 2.1% 477 22,760
Delaware 41.2% 8,724 56.5% '11,958 2.3% 495 21,177
Dutchess 47.0% 58,232 51.2% 63,372 1.8% 2,277 123,881
Erie 56.4% 251,090 41.4% 184,423 2.2% 9,625 445,138
Essex 45.9% 8,768 51.7% 9,869 2.3% 445 19,082
Franklin 52.1% 9,543 45.8% 8,383 2.1% 390 18,316
Fulton 41.4% 9,202 56.6% 12,570 2.0% 443 22,215
Genesee 37.5% 10,331 60.6% 16,725 1.9% 524 27,580
Greene 39.9% 8,933 58.0% 12,996 2.1% 469 22,398
Hamilton 31.0% 1,145 67.0% 2,475 2.0% 75 3,695
Herkimer 41.2% 11,675 56.6% 16,024 2.2 611 28,310
Jefferson 43.5% 16,860 54.7% 21,231 1.8% 709 '38,800
Kings 74.9% 514,973 24.3% 167,149 0.8% 5,658 687,780
Lewis 39.9% 4,546 58.1% 6,624 2.0% 227 11,397
Livingston 38.4% 11,504 59.2% 17,729 2.4% 715 29,948
Madison 43.3 13,121 54.6% 16,537 2.1% 629 30,287
Monroe 50.6% 173,497 47.7% 163,545 1.8% 6,022 343,064
Montgomery 44.5 9,449 53.4% 11,338 2.0% 434 21,221
Nassau 52.2% 323,070 46.6% 288,355 2.2% 6,918 618,343
New York 82.1% 526,765 16.7% 107,405 1.2% 7,577 641,747
Niagara 49.3% 47,602 48.8% 47,111 1.9 1,868 96,581
Oneida 42.8% 40,792 54.9% 52,392 2.3% 2,185 95,369
Onondaga 54.2 116,381 43.8% 94,006 2.0% 4,238 214,625
Ontario 42.2% 21,166 55.9% 27,999 1.9% 945 '50,110
Orange 43.8% 63,394 54.7% 79,089 1.5% 2,190 '144,673
Orleans 36.0% 5,959 62.3% 10,317 1.8% 301 16,573
Oswego 46.8% 24,133 51.0% 26,325 2.2% 1,149 51,607
Otsego 47.7% 12,734 50.1% 13,342 2.2% 587 26,652
Putnam 42.0% 19,575 56.6 26,356 2.4% 640 46,571
Queens 71.7% 433,835 27.4% 165,954 0.9% 5,273 605,062
Rensselaer 49.7% 36,075 47.9% 34,734 2.4% 1,705 '72,514
Richmond 42.7% 68,448 56.4% 90,325 0.8% 1,353 160,126
Rockland 48.9% 64,191 49.6% 65,130 1.5% 1,910 131,231
Saratoga 45.6% 48,730 52.5% 56,158 1.9% 1,985 106,873
Schenectady 51.8% 35,971 46.2% 32,066 2.1% 1,432 69,469
Schoharie 38.7% 5,630 59.0% 8,591 2.3% 338 14,559
Schuyler 40.1% 3,445 57.7% '4,960 2.2% 185 8,590
Seneca 45.5% 6,979 52.1% 7,981 2.4% 365 15,325
St. Lawrence 54.7 '22,857 43.2% 18,029 2.1% 875 41,761
Steuben 34.3% 14,523 63.8% 26,980 1.8% 781 42,284
Suffolk 49.5% '315,909 48.5% 309,949 2.0% 12,854 638,712
Sullivan 48.6% 15,034 49.5% 15,319 2.0% 613 30,966
Tioga 40.6% 9,694 57.6% 13,762 1.9% 446 23,902
Tompkins 64.2% 27,229 33.0% 13,994 2.8% 1,198 42,421
Ulster 54.3% 47,602 43.1% 37,821 2.6% 2,289 87,712
Warren 43.2% 13,405 54.6% '16,969 2.2% 685 31,059
Washington 42.3% 10,624 55.1% 13,827 2.6% 652 25,103
Wayne 38.1% 15,709 60.0% '24,709 1.9% 802 41,220
Westchester 58.1% 229,849 40.3% 159,628 1.6% 6,293 395,770
Wyoming 33.8% 6,134 64.7% 11,745 1.6% 290 18,169
Yates 39.3% 4,205 58.9 6,309 1.8% 197 10,711

Electors

NY voters cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. New York has 31 electors because it has 29 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 31 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 31 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from New York. All were pledged to and voted for Kerry/Edwards.

  1. Joseph Ashton
  2. Bill De Blasio
  3. Molly Clifford
  4. Lorraine Cortes-Vazquez
  5. Inez Dickens
  6. Danny Donahue
  7. Herman D. Farrell
  8. C. Virginia Fields
  9. Emily Giske
  10. Bea Gonzalez
  11. Alan Hevesi
  12. Frank Hoare
  13. Virginia Kee
  14. Peggy Kerry
  15. Denise King
  16. Len Lenihan
  17. Bertha Lewis
  18. Alan Lubin
  19. Thomas Manton
  20. Dennis Mehiel
  21. June O'Neill
  22. David Paterson
  23. Jose Rivera
  24. Rich Schaffer
  25. Chung Seto
  26. Sheldon Silver
  27. Eliot Spitzer
  28. Antoine Thompson
  29. Paul Tokasz
  30. Bill Wood
  31. Robert Zimmerman

References

  1. ^ [1]
  2. ^ "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved 2014.
  3. ^ "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 2014.
  4. ^ "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved 2014.
  5. ^ "CNN.com Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved 2014.
  6. ^ "CNN.com Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved 2014.
  7. ^ "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections 2004 - New York". Uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved .
  8. ^ "Swing State Project". Swingstateproject.com. Retrieved 2014.

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