2020 Arizona Democratic Presidential Primary
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2020 Arizona Democratic Presidential Primary
2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary

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78 Democratic National Convention delegates (67 pledged, 11 unpledged)
The number of pledged delegates won is determined by the popular vote
  Joe Biden February 2020 crop.jpg Bernie Sanders March 2020 (cropped).jpg Elizabeth Warren by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg
Candidate Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren
(withdrawn)[a]
Home state Delaware Vermont Massachusetts
Delegate count 38 29 0
Popular vote 268,029 200,456 35,537
Percentage 43.7% 32.7% 5.8%

Arizona Democratic presidential primary election results by county, 2020.svg
Election results by county
  Joe Biden
  Bernie Sanders

The 2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary took place on Tuesday, March 17, 2020, as one of three contests on the same day in the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries for the 2020 United States presidential election. The closed primary allocated 67 pledged delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention, distributed in proportion to the results of the primary, statewide and within each congressional district. The state was also given an additional 13 unpledged delegates (superdelegates), whose votes at the convention were not bound to the result of the primary.

Three major candidates ran in the primary, including former Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont, and representative Tulsi Gabbard from Hawaii's 2nd district. Six other candidates who withdrew prior to the contest were also on the ballot, along with three minor candidates. Biden won the primary, with 43.7% of the vote and 38 delegates, with Sanders in second place with 32.7% of the vote and 29 delegates. In a distant third was Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, with 5.8% of the vote; no other candidates won over 5% of the vote. Biden won 13 of 15 counties, with the exception of Coconino and Yuma, and 7 of 9 congressional districts.[1]

Key to Biden's victory were white voters, whom he won 51-32 per CNN exit polls, and suburban voters, who he won 53-32;[2] Arizona's suburban voters - in particular, those in Maricopa County, which holds Phoenix and 61.6% of the population[3] - have long been reliantly Republican voters since the 1950s, but had been swiftly moving to the left as the state's minority population has grown and the Republican Party has moved to the right, making Arizona a hotly contested state in the 2020 election.[4] Biden carried Maricopa County by over 33,000 votes and Pima County, the second largest county and home to Tucson, by almost 18,000 votes.[1] In a stark contrast from 2016, Sanders' strength was reliant primarily on non-white and Hispanic voters, whom Biden won by only 47-45 and 45-44, respectively. The 3rd and 7th congressional districts, both of which Sanders won, are majority Hispanic, as was Yuma County, which Sanders managed to flip. Sanders held onto Coconino County, home to Flagstaff.

Biden would ultimately win the state of Arizona in the general election by 10,457 votes, making him the first Democrat to win it since Bill Clinton in 1996 and only the second since Harry Truman did so in 1948.

Procedure

Sanders at a rally in Phoenix on March 5, 2020

Arizona was one of three states holding primaries on March 17, 2020, the others being Florida and Illinois.

Voters had to have been registered as Democrats by February 18 to be eligible for voting in the primary. Arizona mailed ballots to voters on the permanent early voting list. Ballots must have been received by 7:00 p.m. on March 17, 2020. In addition, some Arizona counties offered early voting sites, where any voter may walk in and vote in person, Monday to Friday, from February 19 through March 13, 2020.[5][6]

Voting took place from 6:00 a.m. until 7:00 p.m MST. In the closed primary, candidates must meet a threshold of 15 percent at the congressional district or statewide level in order to be considered viable for delegates The 67 pledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention were allocated proportionally on the basis of the results of the primary. Of the 67 pledged delegates, between 3 and 6 are allocated to each of the state's 9 congressional districts and another 9 are allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates), in addition to 14 at-large pledged delegates. These delegate totals do not account for pledged delegate bonuses or penalties from timing or clustering.[7]

District caucuses were held on Saturday, April 18, 2020, to designate national convention district delegates. The state convention and state committee meeting were subsequently held on Saturday, May 16, 2020, to vote on the 14 pledged at-large and 9 PLEO delegates to send to the Democratic National Convention. The 67 pledged delegates Arizona sent to the national convention were joined by 13 unpledged PLEO delegates (7 members of the Democratic National Committee, Senator Kyrsten Sinema, and representatives Tom O'Halleran, Ann Kirkpatrick, Raúl Grijalva, Ruben Gallego, and Greg Stanton).[7]

Candidates

The following candidates appeared on the ballot in Arizona:[8]

Running

Withdrawn

Polling

Polling aggregation
Source of poll aggregation Date updated Dates polled Joe
Biden
Bernie
Sanders
Tulsi
Gabbard
Other/
Undecided[c]
270 to Win Mar 17, 2020 Mar 3-16, 2020 50.6% 29.4% 1.0% 19.0%
RealClear Politics Mar 17, 2020 Mar 6-15, 2020 51.7% 33.7% 1.0% 13.6%
FiveThirtyEight Mar 17, 2020 until Mar 16, 2020[d] 51.6% 26.9% 1.1% 20.4%
Average 51.3% 30.0% 1.0% 17.7%
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Arizona Democratic primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[e]
Margin
Joe
Biden
Michael
Bloomberg
Pete
Buttigieg
Kamala
Harris
Bernie
Sanders
Elizabeth
Warren
Andrew
Yang
Other Undecided
Swayable Mar 16, 2020 1,167 (LV) ± 5.0% 53% - - - 29% - - 19%[f] -
Marist/NBC News Mar 10-15, 2020 523 (LV) ± 6.0% 53% - - - 36% - - 8%[g] 3%
913 (RV) ± 4.5% 50% - - - 37% - - 9%[h] 5%
Monmouth University Mar 11-14, 2020 373 (LV) ± 5.1% 51% 5% 3% - 31% 3% - 2%[i] 5%
Latino Decisions/Univision/
Arizona State University
Mar 6-11, 2020 541 (LV) ± 4.2% 57%[j] - - - 38%[j] - - - 5%[j]
51% - - - 34% - - 6%[k] 8%
March 4-5, 2020 Bloomberg and Warren withdraw from the race
OH Predictive Insights Mar 3-4, 2020 398 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 12% - - 17% 13% - 4%[l] 9%
March 1-2, 2020 Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdraw from the race
February 11, 2020 New Hampshire primary; Yang withdraws from the race after close of polls
Dec 3, 2019 Harris withdraws from the race
OH Predictive Insights Oct 31 - Nov 8, 2019 260 (LV) ± 6.1% 29% - 9% 5% 16% 18% 4% 19%[m] -
Emerson Polling Oct 25-28, 2019 339 ± 5.2% 28% - 12% 4% 21% 21% 5% 7%[n] -
Siena Research/New York Times Oct 13-26, 2019 209 - 24% - 5% 3% 16% 15% 1% 1%[o] 31%
Change Research Sep 27-28, 2019 396 (LV) - 15% - 13% 4% 19% 35% 8% 7%[p] -
Bendixen&Amandi Sep 9-12, 2019 250 ± 4.3% 29% - 5% 4% 18% 24% 2% 8%[q] 10%
Zogby Analytics May 23-29, 2019 197 ± 7.0% 35% - 6% 4% 16% 10% 0% 11%[r] -

Results

Popular vote share by county
Map legend
  •   Biden – 40-50%
  •   Biden – 50-60%
  •   Sanders – 30-40%
  •   Sanders – 40-50%
2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary[9]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[10]
Joe Biden 268,029 43.7% 38
Bernie Sanders 200,456 32.7% 29
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn+) 35,537 5.8% 0
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn+) 24,868 4.1% 0
Tulsi Gabbard 3,014 0.5% 0
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 1,921 0.3% 0
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 754 0.1% 0
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 668 0.1% 0
Roque De La Fuente III 628 0.1% 0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 242 0.0% 0
Henry Hewes 208 0.0% 0
Michael A. Ellinger 184 0.0% 0
Total 536,509[s] 86.7%[t] 67

+Candidate withdrew after early voting started.

By county

County[9] Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren
(withdrawn+)
Pete Buttigieg
(withdrawn+)
Tulsi Gabbard Andrew Yang
(withdrawn)
Julián Castro
(withdrawn)
Marianne Williamson
(withdrawn)
Rocky De La Fuente Deval Patrick
(withdrawn)
Henry Hewes Michael A. Ellinger Others[u][v] Margin Total votes cast Eligible voters Voter turnout
# % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # %
Apache 3,092 44.0% 2,523 35.9% 252 3.6% 143 2.0% 48 0.7% 36 0.5% 20 0.3% 25 0.4% 26 0.4% 22 0.3% 13 0.2% 10 0.1% 818 11.6% 569 8.1% 7,028 28,734 24.5%
Cochise 4,123 41.7% 2,694 27.3% 678 6.9% 466 4.7% 93 0.9% 34 0.3% 22 0.2% 20 0.2% 26 0.3% 10 0.1% 8 0.1% 4 0.0% 1,710 17.3% 1,429 14.4% 9,888 20,356 48.6%
Coconino 6,578 37.4% 7,650 43.5% 1,255 7.1% 527 3.0% 94 0.5% 64 0.4% 16 0.1% 23 0.1% 17 0.1% 13 0.1% 9 0.1% 5 0.0% 1,354 7.7% -1,072 -6.1% 17,605 35,901 49.0%
Gila 2,041 47.8% 928 21.7% 192 4.5% 181 4.2% 37 0.9% 25 0.6% 10 0.2% 24 0.6% 8 0.2% 3 0.0% 11 0.3% 2 0.1% 807 18.9% 1,113 26.1% 4,269 8,845 48.3%
Graham 774 46.2% 420 25.0% 70 4.2% 44 2.6% 17 1.0% 14 0.8% 8 0.5% 5 0.3% 10 0.6% 0 0.0% 2 0.1% 0 0.0% 313 18.7% 354 21.1% 1,677 5,082 33.0%
Greenlee 316 45.0% 138 19.6% 25 3.6% 30 4.3% 14 2.0% 6 0.9% 4 0.6% 1 0.1% 4 0.6% 0 0.0% 3 0.4% 1 0.1% 161 22.9% 178 25.3% 703 1,756 40.0%
La Paz 323 44.8% 193 26.8% 29 4.0% 21 2.9% 6 0.8% 6 0.8% 5 0.7% 3 0.4% 2 0.3% 1 0.1% 1 0.1% 2 0.3% 129 17.9% 130 18.0% 721 2,282 31.6%
Maricopa 153,707 42.9% 120,379 33.6% 20,584 5.7% 15,346 4.3% 1,620 0.4% 1,109 0.3% 345 0.1% 307 0.1% 297 0.1% 121 0.0% 99 0.0% 92 0.0% 44,384 12.4% 33,328 9.3% 358,390 732,376 48.9%
Mohave 4,450 47.4% 2,142 22.8% 432 4.6% 493 5.3% 64 0.7% 38 0.4% 7 0.1% 18 0.2% 16 0.2% 7 0.1% 7 0.1% 5 0.4% 1,701 18.1% 2,308 24.6% 9,380 20,872 44.9%
Navajo 3,585 44.3% 2,617 32.8% 316 3.9% 193 2.4% 54 0.7% 59 0.7% 14 0.2% 25 0.3% 18 0.2% 11 0.1% 14 0.2% 10 0.1% 1,169 14.5% 968 12.0% 8,085 25,215 32.1%
Pima 60,622 45.3% 42,954 32.1% 8,602 6.4% 4,907 3.7% 613 0.5% 306 0.2% 149 0.1% 105 0.1% 88 0.1% 32 0.0% 20 0.0% 33 0.0% 15,378 11.5% 17,668 13.2% 133,809 237,568 56.3%
Pinal 12,450 48.4% 6,658 25.9% 1,165 4.5% 1,030 4.0% 148 0.6% 106 0.4% 39 0.2% 33 0.1% 45 0.2% 6 0.0% 12 0.1% 3 0.0% 4,032 15.7% 5,792 22.5% 25,727 60,034 42.9%
Santa Cruz 1,876 40.6% 1,547 33.5% 194 4.2% 131 2.8% 15 0.3% 18 0.4% 22 0.5% 12 0.3% 25 0.5% 2 0.0% 0 0.0% 6 0.1% 775 16.8% 329 7.1% 4,623 13,552 34.1%
Yavapai 10,317 47.9% 5,717 26.5% 1,355 6.3% 1,015 4.7% 129 0.6% 56 0.3% 5 0.0% 42 0.2% 5 0.0% 3 0.0% 5 0.0% 3 0.0% 2,891 13.4% 4,600 21.4% 21,543 31,856 67.6%
Yuma 3,775 38.1% 3,896 39.3% 388 3.9% 341 3.4% 62 0.6% 44 0.4% 88 0.9% 25 0.3% 41 0.4% 11 0.1% 4 0.0% 8 0.1% 1,224 12.4% -121 -1.2% 9,907 31,914 31.0%
Totals 268,029 43.7% 200,456 32.7% 35,537 5.8% 24,868 4.1% 3,014 0.5% 1,921 0.3% 754 0.1% 668 0.1% 628 0.1% 242 0.0% 208 0.0% 184 0.0% 76,846 12.5% 67,573 11.0% 613,355 1,256,343 48.8%

By congressional district

Congressional district[9] Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren
(withdrawn+)
Pete Buttigieg
(withdrawn+)
Tulsi Gabbard Andrew Yang
(withdrawn)
Julián Castro
(withdrawn)
Marianne Williamson
(withdrawn)
Rocky De La Fuente Deval Patrick
(withdrawn)
Henry Hewes Michael A. Ellinger Others[w][v] Margin Total votes cast Eligible voters Voter turnout
# % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # %
1st 32,749 45.8% 22,336 31.2% 3,776 5.3% 2,472 3.5% 432 0.6% 302 0.4% 107 0.2% 119 0.2% 117 0.2% 53 0.1% 55 0.1% 33 0.1% 8,954 12.5% 10,413 14.6% 71,505 167,908 42.6%
2nd 43,970 45.9% 28,927 30.2% 6,741 7.0% 3,814 4.0% 479 0.5% 240 0.3% 82 0.1% 88 0.1% 72 0.1% 30 0.0% 19 0.0% 18 0.0% 11,238 11.7% 15,043 15.7% 95,718 160,428 59.7%
3rd 23,744 38.7% 24,766 40.4% 2,724 4.4% 1,595 2.6% 292 0.5% 180 0.3% 222 0.4% 72 0.1% 115 0.2% 34 0.1% 17 0.0% 31 0.1% 7,505 12.2% -1,022 -1.7% 61,297 158,635 38.6%
4th 22,338 47.4% 11,925 25.3% 2,550 5.4% 2,298 4.9% 293 0.6% 164 0.4% 42 0.1% 100 0.2% 61 0.1% 20 0.0% 31 0.1% 15 0.0% 7,291 15.5% 10,413 22.1% 47,128 90,296 52.2%
5th 27,851 44.3% 19,636 31.3% 3,721 5.9% 3,020 4.8% 302 0.5% 210 0.3% 36 0.1% 58 0.1% 35 0.1% 8 0.0% 13 0.0% 13 0.0% 7,920 12.6% 8,215 13.1% 62,823 121,006 51.9%
6th 34,295 47.4% 19,878 27.5% 4,240 5.9% 3,570 4.9% 347 0.5% 156 0.2% 33 0.1% 57 0.1% 34 0.1% 20 0.0% 15 0.0% 10 0.0% 9,676 13.4% 14,417 19.9% 72,331 129,893 55.7%
7th 19,789 35.6% 24,701 44.4% 2,676 4.8% 1,572 2.8% 182 0.3% 191 0.3% 124 0.2% 42 0.1% 77 0.1% 27 0.1% 11 0.0% 23 0.0% 6,202 11.2% -4,912 -8.8% 55,617 148,509 37.5%
8th 30,594 46.8% 17,537 26.8% 3,420 5.2% 3,098 4.7% 334 0.5% 206 0.3% 59 0.1% 74 0.1% 59 0.1% 22 0.0% 28 0.0% 21 0.0% 9,985 15.3% 13,057 20.0% 65,437 123,996 52.8%
9th 32,699 40.1% 30,750 37.7% 5,689 7.0% 3,429 4.2% 353 0.4% 272 0.3% 49 0.1% 58 0.1% 58 0.1% 28 0.0% 19 0.0% 20 0.0% 8,075 9.9% 1,949 2.4% 81,499 155,672 52.4%
Totals 268,029 43.7% 200,456 32.7% 35,537 5.8% 24,868 4.1% 3,014 0.5% 1,921 0.3% 754 0.1% 668 0.1% 628 0.1% 242 0.0% 208 0.0% 184 0.0% 76,846 12.5% 67,573 11.0% 613,355 1,256,343 48.8%

Analysis

Arizona was a hotly contested state throughout both the primary and general election seasons due to its rapidly diversifying electorate. A high concentration of Hispanic and Latino voters as well as an intense swing to the left in suburban areas strengthened Democratic support while drawing new divides in the Democratic Party.[4] In 2016, Hillary Clinton defeated Bernie Sanders by a 14.9% margin;[12] despite Sanders being trailing Biden significantly nationwide, he actually improved on his performance in Arizona in 2020, losing it by an 11.0% margin.[9] This improvement was mostly attributable to improvements among Hispanic and Latino voters: Sanders performed well among that demographic throughout the primary as opposed to 2016, when Clinton handily carried regions with high densities of Hispanic voters.[13] Per CNN exit polls,[2] Biden won Hispanic voters 45-44 compared to white voters, who he won 51-32. Sanders won Yuma County, where 64.6% of the population are Hispanic or Latino, as well as Arizona's 3rd and 7th congressional districts; the former, home to Tucson, Yuma, and most of the southern border, is 65.1% Hispanic,[14] while the latter, composing much of inner Phoenix, is 64.0% Hispanic.[15] Nonetheless, Biden's performance represented a significant improvement among voters of these demographics from earlier in the primary,[13] which was compounded by a strong performance in the state's suburbs. He won Maricopa County, which holds Phoenix and 61.6% of the population, by 33,328 votes,[9] largely due to the Phoenix suburbs, which have been reliably Republican since the 1950s but have recently shifted to the left.[4] He also won Pima County, the second largest county and home to Tucson, by 17,668 votes.[9]

The results of the primary would be reflected in the general election: Biden would end up winning Arizona by 10,457 votes, the first Democrat to do so since Bill Clinton in 1996 and only the second since Harry S. Truman in 1948. He'd also become the first to win crucial Maricopa County since Truman. His performance in predominantly-Hispanic areas in urban areas and along the southern border would also decline compare to 2016, though would be supplemented by a raw increase in voter turnout.[16]

Notes

  1. ^ Warren withdrew on March 5, 2020, twelve days before the primary. Absentee and early voting had already occurred.
  2. ^ a b c d e Candidate withdrew after early voting started, but before the date of the election.
  3. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined
  4. ^ FiveThirtyEight aggregates polls with a trendline regression of polls rather than a strict average of recent polls.
  5. ^ Key:
    A - all adults
    RV - registered voters
    LV - likely voters
    V - unclear
  6. ^ Gabbard with 1%; "Other" with 18%
  7. ^ Gabbard with 1%; "Other" with 7%
  8. ^ Gabbard with 2%; "Other" with 7%
  9. ^ Gabbard and Klobuchar with 1%; "Other" with <1%
  10. ^ a b c In a two-person race
  11. ^ Gabbard with 1%; "Other" with 5%
  12. ^ "Another Candidate" with 4%
  13. ^ Booker, Castro and Klobuchar with 2%; Bennet, Gabbard, O'Rourke and Steyer with 1%; Delaney with 0%; Bullock and Williamson with no voters; other with 7%
  14. ^ Gabbard, Klobuchar and O'Rourke with 2%; Sestak with 1%; Bennet, Booker, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Steyer and Williamson with 0%; someone else with 2%
  15. ^ Klobuchar with 1%; Booker, Gabbard and O'Rourke with 0%; others with 0%
  16. ^ O'Rourke with 3%; Booker, Castro, Gabbard and Klobuchar with 1%; Steyer with 0%
  17. ^ O'Rourke with 4%; Castro, Klobuchar and Williamson with 1%; someone else with 1%
  18. ^ Booker, Castro, Delaney, and O'Rourke with 2%; Gabbard, Gillibrand, and Hickenlooper with 1%; Inslee and Klobuchar with 0%
  19. ^ Total of candidates officially reported, of 613,355 ballots cast.
  20. ^ Percentages reported by the Arizona Secretary of State do not add up to 100. This may be due to the fact that candidates who formally withdrew (Bennet, Bloomberg, Booker, Delaney, Klobuchar, and Steyer[11]) do not have their vote totals officially reported.[9]
  21. ^ Percentages reported by the Arizona Secretary of State do not add up to 100. This may be due to the fact that candidates who formally withdrew (Bennet, Bloomberg, Booker, Delaney, Klobuchar, and Steyer[11]) do not have their vote totals officially reported.[9]
  22. ^ a b Calculated by subtracting the totals of all reported candidates from the total votes reported.
  23. ^ Percentages reported by the Arizona Secretary of State do not add up to 100. This may be due to the fact that candidates who formally withdrew (Bennet, Bloomberg, Booker, Delaney, Klobuchar, and Steyer[11]) do not have their vote totals officially reported.[9]

References

  1. ^ a b "State of Arizona Official Canvass 2020 Presidential Preference Election - Mar 17, 2020" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. March 30, 2020. Retrieved 2021.
  2. ^ a b "Arizona Primary Polls". CNN. Retrieved 2021.
  3. ^ "County Population Totals: 2010-2019". United States Census Bureau. Retrieved 2021.
  4. ^ a b c Savicki, Drew (October 5, 2020). "The Road to 270: Arizona". 270toWin. Retrieved 2021.
  5. ^ "Early Voting Sites". Pima County Recorder. Retrieved 2021.
  6. ^ "Democratic Presidential Preference Election - Vote Centers" (PDF). Maricopa County Recorder.
  7. ^ a b "Arizona Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved 2019.
  8. ^ "Secretary of State--Running for Federal Office". Arizona Secretary of State.
  9. ^ a b c d e f g h i "State of Arizona Official Canvass: 2020 Presidential Preference Election - Mar 17, 2020" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. March 30, 2020. Retrieved 2020.
  10. ^ "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Arizona Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved 2020.
  11. ^ a b c "Running for Federal Office, Arizona Secretary of State". azsos.gov. Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved 2020.
  12. ^ "State of Arizona Official Canvass - 2016 Presidential Preference Election - March 22, 2016" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. April 4, 2016. Retrieved 2021.
  13. ^ a b Klar, Rebecca (March 17, 2020). "Biden wins Arizona primary, capping off victories in three states". The Hill. Retrieved 2021.
  14. ^ "My Congressional District Arizona Congressional District 3". My Congressional District. United States Census Bureau. Retrieved 2021.
  15. ^ "My Congressional District Arizona Congressional District 7". My Congressional District. United States Census Bureau. Retrieved 2021.
  16. ^ Collins, Keith; Fessenden, Ford; Gamio, Lazaro; Harris, Rich; Keefe, John; Lu, Denise; Lutz, Eleanor; Walker, Amy Schoenfeld; Watkins, Derek. "Phoenix's Blue Wave Pushes Arizona Toward Biden". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2021.

External links


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2020_Arizona_Democratic_presidential_primary
 



 



 
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