July 2021 Bulgarian Parliamentary Election
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July 2021 Bulgarian Parliamentary Election
July 2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election
Bulgaria
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All 240 seats in the National Assembly
121 seats needed for a majority
Turnout42.19% Decrease 6.9%
ITN Slavi Trifonov 24.08 65 +14
GERB-SDS Boyko Borisov 23.58 63 -12
BSPzB Korneliya Ninova 13.39 36 -7
DB Atanas Atanasov [bg]
Hristo Ivanov
12.64 34 +7
DPS Mustafa Karadayi 10.71 29 -1
ISMV Maya Manolova 5.01 13 -1
July 2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election - Results.svg
Results of the election in each electoral district

Snap parliamentary elections were held in Bulgaria on 11 July 2021 after no party was able or willing to form a government following the April 2021 elections.[1] The populist party There Is Such a People (ITN), led by musician and television host Slavi Trifonov, narrowly won the most seats over a coalition of the conservative GERB and Union of Democratic Forces parties. Four other parties (the leftist BSP for Bulgaria, the liberal alliance Democratic Bulgaria, the centrist Turkish minority party Movement for Rights and Freedoms, and the anti-corruption Stand Up! Mafia, Get Out!) won seats in the 240-member Parliament as well.

ITN's success was propelled primarily by young voters. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) assessed the election as being "competitive" and with "fundamental freedoms being generally respected."[2] Following the election, Trifonov has said he will look to run a minority government over a coalition government.

Background

The previous election in April saw the ruling GERB party win 75 seats, There Is Such A People (ITN) win 51 seats, BSP for Bulgaria win 43 seats, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms win 30 seats, Democratic Bulgaria win 27 seats and Stand Up! Mafia, Get Out! win 14 seats. After Boyko Borisov of GERB and Slavi Trifonov of There Is Such A People (ITN) were unable to form governments, the BSP stated that they would refuse the mandate to form the government, as the three anti-corruption parties (ITN, Democratic Bulgaria and ISMV) were unwilling to work with them.[1]

Electoral system

The 240 members of the National Assembly are elected by open list proportional representation from 31 multi-member constituencies ranging in size from 4 to 16 seats. The electoral threshold is 4% for parties, with seats allocated according to the largest remainder method.[3]

Parties and coalitions

In May 2021, IMRO - Bulgarian National Movement formed a alliance with fellow neo-nationalists Volya Movement and National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria in an alliance called Bulgarian Patriots.[4]

Opinion polls

The opinion poll results below were recalculated from the original data and excludes pollees that chose 'I will not vote' or 'I am uncertain'.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
GERB-SDS ITN BSPzB DPS DB ISMV BP Revival BL RzB Left Union Others / None Lead
VMRO Volya NFSB
Exit polls (20:00) N/A 23.5% 22.3% 14.1% 11.7% 14.1% 5.5% 3.2% 2.3% 1.3% - 0.3% 1.7% 1.2%
Gallup / BNT Exit polls (20:00) N/A 22.1% 21.5% 15.1% 11.8% 13.7% 4.9% 3.3% 3.2% 2.2% - 0.3% 1.8% 0.6%
Alpha Research 4-7 July 2021 1013 21.5% 21.8% 16.4% 11.1% 12% 5.4% 3.8% 3.2% 1.2% - 0.5% 3.1% 0.3%
Trend 3-7 July 2021 1002 20.5% 21.3% 15.9% 11.3% 12.4% 5.1% 3.9% 3.1% 1.6% - 0.8% 4.1% 0.8%
Gallup 30 Jun-7 Jul 2021 1010 20.3% 21.3% 15.9% 11.5% 12.2% 6.1% 4% 3.1% 2.5% - 1% 2.1% 1%
Sova Harris 2-6 July 2021 1000 22.6% 22.1% 16% 10.9% 10.6% 5.3% 4.5% - - - - 8% 0.5%
Exacta 1-5 July 2021 1005 21.4% 20.8% 15.8% 11.2% 12.8% 4.8% 4% 2.8% 1.8% - - 4.6% 0.6%
Mediana 920 22.5% 21.7% 20.6% 11.1% 10% 5.1% 4.8% 2.2% - - - 2% 0.8%
Nasoca 23-30 Jun 2021 1025 21.4% 20.5% 15.8% 10.5% 11.3% 5.3% 4.4% 2.3% 2.1% - - 6.4% 0.9%
Specter 24-27 Jun 2021 703 21.4% 19.7% 14.5% 10.5% 12.2% 5.0% 5.2% 2.4% 0.9% 0.5% 1.3% 6.4% 1.7%
Market links 18-25 Jun 2021 626 21.8% 20.8% 18.7% 10.5% 13.8% 6% 3.2% 2.7% 1.4% - - 1.1% 1%
Barometer 18-23 June 2021 860 22.5% 18.2% 17.1% 11.6% 9.1% 4.3% 6.4% 1.4% - 1.2% 1.9% 6.2% 4.3%
Trend 11-18 Jun 2021 1,003 21.7% 20.2% 16.1% 10.9% 11.2% 5.0% 3.9% 2.3% 1.9% - 1.1% 5.7% 1.5%
Sova Harris 10-15 Jun 2021 1,000 22.4% 21.7% 18.7% 11.4% 11.1% 5.4% 4.9% - - - - 4.4% 0.7%
Mediana 10-15 Jun 2021 1,008 21.4% 24.0% 21.3% 11.2% 7.2% 6.9% 5.1% 1.5% - - - 1.4% 2.6%
Gallup 3-11 Jun 2021 1,012 21.0% 21.2% 15.9% 11.9% 12.1% 5.8% 3.5% 2.7% 2.4% - - 3.5% 0.2%
Specter 5-10 Jun 2021 731 21.0% 19.4% 14.1% 10.3% 11.5% 4.8% 4.8% 2.8% 0.9% 0.9% 1.5% 8.0% 1.6%
Alpha Research 1,007 20.3% 18.2% 14.4% 9.9% 11.9% 5.3% 3.4% 2.8% 1.1% - 1.8% 10.9% 2.1%
Barometer 1-6 Jun 2021 840 24.1% 17.1% 16.9% 11.3% 8.9% 4.1% 6.1% 1.5% - 1.3% 1.1% 7.6% 7.0%
Market Links 19-27 May 2021 676 23.7% 19.8% 19.3% 10.6% 13.3% 4.8% 4.6% 2% - - - 2% 3.9%
CAM[a] 14-21 May 2021 - 23.8% 20.9% 18.0% 10.5% 11.4% 4.4% 3.7% 1.9% - - - 5.5% 2.9%
Gallup[a] 7-14 May 2021 812 22.8% 20.1% 16.1% 11.2% 11.6% 5.6% 3.1% 1.4% - 2.6% 2.8% - - 6.9% 2.7%
Market Links[b][c] 16-23 Apr 2021 1,053 23.2% 22.3% 18.1% 10.3% 13.1% 6.5% 3.3% - - 1.9% - - - 1.4% 0.9%
Gallup 12-14 Apr 2021 831 27.2% 23.2% 13.8% 10.4% 12.0% 4.3% - - - - - - 4.0%
April 2021 election 4 Apr 2021 - 25.8% 17.4% 14.8% 10.4% 9.3% 4.6% 3.6% 2.3% 2.4% 2.9% 1.3% 0.5% 4.7% 8.4%


Graphical representation of recalculated data:

Campaign

During the buildup to the April election, Borisov sought to increase his party's share of the rural vote, making campaign stops at small villages in the Rhodope Mountains.[5] The April election showed a clear divide between rural and urban areas of the country; towns favored established parties, while Sofia and other cities went predominantly for new opposition parties, including ITN.[6] Reporters predicted these trends would influence the July election as well.[6]

Results

There Is Such a People received the most votes, finishing around 15,000 votes ahead of GERB-SDS. It was the first time that GERB or a GERB-led coalition had not won the most votes or seats since the party's establishment in 2006. Four other parties (BSP for Bulgaria, Democratic Bulgaria, Movement for Rights and Freedom, and Stand Up! Mafia, Get Out!) also won seats.[7] There Is Such a People performed well among young voters, with 37.4% of Generation Z supporting the party and 30.9% of voters aged 30-39.[8] GERB-SDS received high support from voters aged 40-69, and BSP for Bulgaria received high support from voters older than 70.[8]

International observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe said freedoms were respected in the election.[7]

July 2021 Bulgaria Parliament.svg
PartyVotes%Seats+/-
There Is Such a People657,82923.7865+14
GERB-SDS642,16523.2163-12
BSP for Bulgaria365,69513.2236-7
Democratic Bulgaria345,33112.4834+7
Movement for Rights and Freedoms292,51410.5729-1
Stand Up! Mafia, Get Out!136,8854.9513-1
Bulgarian Patriots85,7953.1000
Revival82,1472.9700
Bulgarian Summer49,8331.800New
Attack12,5850.4500
Left Union for a Clean and Holy Republic10,3090.370New
Republicans for Bulgaria8,5460.3100
National Association of the Right7,8720.280New
People's Voice4,7410.1700
Bulgarian National Union - New Democracy4,6900.1700
Freedom4,3040.160New
Bulgaria of Work and Reason3,9480.140New
Together Movement for Change3,4450.1200
MIR3,4270.120New
Green Party of Bulgaria3,2570.1200
Direct Democracy3,1430.1100
Brigade2,1870.080New
Rise8620.030New
Independents1420.0100
None of the above35,2011.27--
Total2,766,853100.002400
Valid votes2,766,85399.66
Invalid/blank votes9,3420.34
Total votes2,776,195100.00
Registered voters/turnout6,873,78440.39
Source: CIK

Notes:

  1. ^ a b Includes voter-only data.
  2. ^ Includes voters and non-voters.
  3. ^ The sum of all percentages is above or below 100.

Aftermath

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe issued a statement that "Bulgaria's early parliamentary elections were competitive and fundamental freedoms were generally respected. The campaign environment was dominated by mutual accusations of corruption between the former ruling party and the provisional government, as well as by efforts by law-enforcement to curb vote-buying."[2]

After the election, Trifonov said he did not plan to form a coalition government and would instead seek to run a minority government.[7] The parliament is expected to convene for the first time about a week after the election.[7] Former deputy prime minister Nikolay Vasilev was designated as a candidate for prime minister. Initial reactions from the other parliamentary forces were overwhelmingly negative.[9] On 15 July, Trifonov announced the withdrawal of Vasilev's nomination via his Facebook account.[10] On 22 July, Trifonov's party announced that they were willing to form a coalition government, as long as GERB was not a part of it. Democratic Bulgaria and ISMV were stated as the most likely coalition partners.[11] The same day, invitations for talks on government were sent to all parties, except GERB.[12]

References

  1. ^ a b Bulgaria faces fresh elections as Socialists refuse to form a government Reuters, 1 May 2021
  2. ^ a b "Fundamental freedoms generally respected in Bulgarian elections, but media shortcomings, lack of issue-driven campaign fail to engage voters, observers say". www.osce.org. Retrieved .
  3. ^ Electoral system for national legislature - Bulgaria IDEA
  4. ^ "Ultra-nationalists, populists form 'Bulgarian Patriots' alliance for July elections". The Sofia Globe. 20 May 2021. Archived from the original on 21 May 2021. Retrieved 2021.
  5. ^ Tsolova, Tsvetelia (2 April 2021). "Bulgarian PM woos rural voters with infrastructure in tough re-election bid". Reuters. Retrieved 2021.
  6. ^ a b Nuttal, Grace (8 July 2021). "Diaspora voters set to choose change in Bulgaria and Moldova". bne IntelliNews. Retrieved 2021.
  7. ^ a b c d Toshkov, Veselin (12 July 2021). "Anti-elite party earns tight win in Bulgarian elections". Associated Press. Retrieved 2021.
  8. ^ a b "37.4% of Generation Z supports There is Such a People party: survey". Radio Bulgaria. 13 July 2021. Retrieved 2021.
  9. ^ "Bulgaria's July elections: Outrage over Trifonov's 'Facebook Republic'". The Sofia Globe. 13 July 2021. Archived from the original on 13 July 2021. Retrieved 2021.
  10. ^ "Bulgaria's July elections aftermath: Trifonov says will change proposed government". The Sofia Globe. 2021-07-15. Retrieved .
  11. ^ "Bulgaria's Winning Party Makes Sudden U-Turn on Coalition Talks". Balkan Insight. 2021-07-22. Retrieved .
  12. ^ "Bulgaria: Trifonov's ITN invites all except GERB for talks on government". The Sofia Globe. 2021-07-22. Retrieved .

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